Search Results (4)

Bayesian approaches to decision trees (DTs) using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers have recently demonstrated state-of-the-art accuracy performance when it comes to training DTs to solve classification problems. Despite the competitive classification accuracy, MCMC requires a potentially long runtime to converge. A widely used approach to reducing an algorithm’s runtime is to employ modern multi-core computer architectures, either with shared memory (SM) or distributed memory (DM), and use parallel computing to accelerate the algorithm. However, the inherent sequential nature of MCMC makes it unsuitable for parallel implementation unless the accuracy is sacrificed. This issue is particularly evident in DM architectures, which normally provide access to larger numbers of cores than SM. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are a parallel alternative to MCMC, which do not trade off accuracy for parallelism. However, the performance of SMC samplers in the context of DTs is underexplored, and the parallelization is complicated by the challenges in parallelizing its bottleneck, namely redistribution, especially on variable-size data types such as DTs. In this work, we study the problem of parallelizing SMC in the context of DTs both on SM and DM. On both memory architectures, we show that the proposed parallelization strategies achieve asymptotically optimal $O\left({log}_{2}N\right)$ time complexity. Numerical results are presented for a 32-core SM machine and a 256-core DM cluster. For both computer architectures, the experimental results show that our approach has comparable or better accuracy than MCMC but runs up to 51 times faster on SM and 640 times faster on DM. In this paper, we share the GitHub link to the source code. Full article

Several disciplines, such as econometrics, neuroscience, and computational psychology, study the dynamic interactions between variables over time. A Bayesian nonparametric model known as the Wishart process has been shown to be effective in this situation, but its inference remains highly challenging. In this work, we introduce a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler for the Wishart process, and show how it compares to conventional inference approaches, namely MCMC and variational inference. Using simulations, we show that SMC sampling results in the most robust estimates and out-of-sample predictions of dynamic covariance. SMC especially outperforms the alternative approaches when using composite covariance functions with correlated parameters. We further demonstrate the practical applicability of our proposed approach on a dataset of clinical depression ($n=1$), and show how using an accurate representation of the posterior distribution can be used to test for dynamics in covariance. Full article

Crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is an important tool for a wide range of geoscientific and engineering investigations, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a heuristic global optimization method that can be used to solve the inversion problem. In this paper, we use time-lapse GPR full-waveform data to invert the dielectric permittivity. An inversion based on the MCMC method does not rely on an accurate initial model and can introduce any complex prior information. Time-lapse ground-penetrating radar has great potential to monitor the properties of a subsurface. For the time-lapse inversion, we used the double difference method to invert the time-lapse target area accurately and full-waveform data. We propose a local sampling strategy taking advantage of the a priori information in the Monte Carlo method, which can sample only the target area with a sequential Gibbs sampler. This method reduces the calculation and improves the inversion accuracy of the target area. We have provided inversion results of the synthetic time-lapse waveform data that show that the proposed method significantly improves accuracy in the target area. Full article

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used for non-linear filtering purposes. However, the SMC scope encompasses wider applications such as estimating static model parameters so much that it is becoming a serious alternative to Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Not only do SMC algorithms draw posterior distributions of static or dynamic parameters but additionally they provide an estimate of the marginal likelihood. The tempered and time (TNT) algorithm, developed in this paper, combines (off-line) tempered SMC inference with on-line SMC inference for drawing realizations from many sequential posterior distributions without experiencing a particle degeneracy problem. Furthermore, it introduces a new MCMC rejuvenation step that is generic, automated and well-suited for multi-modal distributions. As this update relies on the wide heuristic optimization literature, numerous extensions are readily available. The algorithm is notably appropriate for estimating change-point models. As an example, we compare several change-point GARCH models through their marginal log-likelihoods over time. Full article