Search Results (7)

Investment projects are not the only ones where significant complications in their implementation may occur. The fundamental question, how to specify threats hidden in time series, is one of the most important types of knowledge arising from the basic schedules’ documentation. Feasibility studies, project proposals, organizational and production procedures, research projects, and others are major resources of information. The reason why to specify threats hidden in time series is the high cost of not revealing hidden threats. An illustrative clarification of the cost is given on the current data of nuclear power plants. Wherever one works with schedules and resources, the above-mentioned issue may appear. Undeniably, valid data is discoverable ex post in accounting, documentation, or even in the documentation of the preparation and implementation, and in the analyzes of the mechanisms for non-compliance with deadlines and cost increases. For implementation (i.e., ex ante use), the majority of projects are created by expert intuitive decision-making. In terms of content, these are sources of errors from the past, lacking analytical quantitative support (suffering from the so-called evidence shortage). Production schedule time series comprise: (a) cumulative volume, (b) speeds, and (c) accelerations. More recent, in addition to statistical analysis, is the focus on the long-term memory of time series and to the application of the Hurst exponent as indicators of predictability (ex-ante). This article offers a procedure for how to reveal hidden chaotic states in the time series of a project’s output information. If it is possible to find chaotic behavior in the output information, these states must be searched for and removed in the original source model—the implementation project. Exceeding contractual terms and implementation costs leads to a threat to the economic basis—the collapse of the initial idea of the project’s economy. As an example, nuclear power plant projects are shown. The article broadens the perspective of ex ante decision-making. Full article

This paper deals with the weighted combination of forecasting methods using intelligent strategies for achieving accurate forecasts. In an effort to improve forecasting accuracy, we develop an algorithm that optimizes both the methods used in the combination and the weights assigned to the individual forecasts, COmbEB. The performance of our procedure can be enhanced by analyzing separately seasonal and non-seasonal time series. We study the relationships between prediction errors in the validation set and those of ex-post forecasts for different planning horizons. This study reveals the importance of setting the size of the validation set in a proper way. The performance of the proposed strategy is compared with that of the best prediction strategy in the analysis of each of the 100,000 series included in the M4 Competition. Full article

Ionizing radiation causes serious injury to the human body and has long-time impacts on health. It is important to find optimal biomarkers for the early quick screening of exposed individuals. A series of miRNAs signatures have been developed as the new biomarkers for diagnosis, survival, and prognostic prediction of cancers. Here, we have identified the ionizing radiation-inducible miRNAs profile through microarray analysis. The biological functions were predicted for the top six upregulated miRNAs by 4 Gy γ-rays: miR-1246, miR-1307-3p, miR-3197, miR-4267, miR-5096 and miR-7641. The miRNA-gene network and target gene-pathway network analyses revealed that DNAH3 is the target gene associated with all the six miRNAs. GOLGB1 is related to 4 miRNAs and other 26 genes targeted by 3 miRNAs. The upregulation of fifteen miRNAs were further verified at 4 h and 24 h after 0 to 10 Gy irradiation in the human lymphoblastoid AHH-1 cells, and some demonstrated a dose-dependent increased. Six miRNAs, including miR-145, miR-663, miR-1273g-3p, miR-6090, miR-6727-5p and miR-7641, were validated to be dose-dependently upregulated at 4 h or 24 h post-irradiation in both AHH-1 and human peripheral blood lymphocytes irradiated ex vivo. This six-miRNA signature displays the superiority as a radiation biomarker for the translational application of screening and assessment of radiation exposed individuals. Full article

The paper provides an integrated assessment of environmental and socio-economic effects arising from final consumption of food products by European households. Direct and indirect effects accumulated along the global supply chain are assessed by applying environmentally extended input–output analysis (EE-IOA). EXIOBASE 3.4 database is used as a source of detailed information on environmental pressures and world input–output transactions of intermediate and final goods and services. An original methodology to produce detailed allocation matrices to link IO data with household expenditure data is presented and applied. The results show a relative decoupling between environmental pressures and consumption over time and shows that European food consumption generates relatively less environmental pressures outside Europe (due to imports) than average European consumption. A methodological framework is defined to analyze the main driving forces by means of a structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The results of the SDA highlight that while technological developments and changes in the mix of consumed food products result in reductions in environmental pressures, this is offset by growth in consumption. The results highlight the importance of directing specific research and policy efforts towards food consumption to support the transition to a more sustainable food system in line with the objectives of the EU Farm to Fork Strategy. Full article

High-speed railways have strict standards of infrastructure deformation and post-construction settlement. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has the ability to detect ground deformation with a high accuracy and wide coverage and is becoming a useful tool for monitoring railway health. In this study, we analyzed the Beijing–Tianjin Intercity Railway (BTIR) track using InSAR time-series analysis with different data sets. First, by using RADARSAT-2 images, we examined the areas along the BTIR with significant subsidence. Then, we characterized these areas by means of X-band TerraSAR-X data. We adopted the expectation (Ex) and entropy (En) method, combined with GIS spatial analysis, to analyze the ground settlement differences on both sides of the railway. The results show that the area with the most severe differential settlement occurs between 12 and 20 km along the railway and within 120 to 20 m on both sides of the Chaoyang–Tongzhou section (CTS). Thereafter, we analyzed the reasons for the large difference in this area by considering different factors, e.g., regional land subsidence, groundwater level changes, and the dynamic load. In addition, we studied the impact of regional subsidence on the safe operation of the BTIR. The results show that the maximum different settlement along the BTIR is within the safe range, according to the high-speed railway design standard between 2010 and 2015. This study aims to provide technical support for assessing the impact of subsidence on the safety of railway operations. Full article

This study of ex post impact assessment aims to review the lessons learned from the implementation of previous master plans in the case study city of Shenzhen (China) in order to provide evidence-based input for the possible integration of impact assessment in future master planning in Shenzhen and other world cities, particularly in developing and emerging countries. The paper uses GIS data to derive maps for the visualization of spatial developmental patterns with complementary quantitative analysis for the spatial-temporal impact assessment. The ex post impact assessment shows that the master plans of Shenzhen have successfully guided urban development towards a polycentric spatial structure. Regarding the data used in the study, Global Human Settlement Layer (GSHL) is a valuable dataset that is generally suited to assessing the urban development pattern. The time series mapping of growth in built-up areas as well as population and built-up intensity mapping based on time specific categorization supplemented by the quantitative assessment of high urban concentrations (hUCs) based on time specific thresholding allows the identification of development patterns over a long period of time. Full article

Asian countries strongly depend on rice production for food security. The major rice-growing season (June to October) is highly exposed to the risk of tropical storm related damage. Unbiased and transparent approaches to assess the risk of rice crop damage are essential to support mitigation and disaster response strategies in the region. This study describes and demonstrates a method for rapid, pre-event crop status assessment. The ex-post test case is Typhoon Haiyan and its impact on the rice crop in Leyte Province in the Philippines. A synthetic aperture radar (SAR) derived rice area map was used to delineate the area at risk while crop status at the moment of typhoon landfall was estimated from specific time series analysis of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. A spatially explicit indicator of risk of standing crop loss was calculated as the time between estimated heading date and typhoon occurrence. Results of the analysis of pre- and post-event SAR images showed that 6500 ha were flooded in northeastern Leyte. This area was also the region most at risk to storm related crop damage due to late establishment of rice. Estimates highlight that about 700 ha of rice (71% of which was in northeastern Leyte) had not reached maturity at the time of the typhoon event and a further 8400 ha (84% of which was in northeastern Leyte) were likely to be not yet harvested. We demonstrated that the proposed approach can provide pre-event, in-season information on the status of rice and other field crops and the risk of damage posed by tropical storms. Full article