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20 pages, 282 KB

Open AccessArticle

Techno-Digital Vulnerability and Intelligence Failures

by Ehud Eiran

Soc. Sci. 2026, 15(1), 37; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci15010037 - 11 Jan 2026

Scholars and practitioners of international relations and security studies view technological capabilities in general, and digital ones in particular, as crucial to enhancing state power. Among other things, digital technologies sharpen intelligence, thus reducing the likelihood of strategic surprise by improving situational awareness and strengthening deterrence. Yet the empirical record of the early twenty-first century presents a paradox: states with highly advanced digital infrastructures remain vulnerable to unexpected strategic shocks, including intelligence failures. This article develops a conceptual framework, techno-digital vulnerability, that explains why digital superiority can paradoxically increase susceptibility to strategic surprise. Drawing on international relations theory, this article identifies four interrelated mechanisms: illusions of informational completeness; structural dependence on digital systems; hypervisibility of digitally open societies; and the systematic undervaluation of low-tech adversaries. The argument is illustrated through the case of Israel’s failure to foresee the Hamas attack of 7 October 2023. The article concludes by outlining the implications for digitally advanced democracies and for the study of strategic surprise in IR. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Technology, Digital Media and Politics)

19 pages, 1503 KB

Open AccessArticle

“Shocking the System” in the 21st Century: Conservative Policy Entrepreneurs and the Plan for Authoritarianism in the U.S.

by Athena M. King

Soc. Sci. 2025, 14(4), 235; https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci14040235 - 11 Apr 2025

Viewed by 7009

Abstract

The first few days of the second Trump presidency saw a flurry of executive orders targeting immigrants, the transgender community, blacks, and federal government employees. The resulting “shocks” to the system are unprecedented, causing many to question the continuation of American democracy. These actions are a few of many policy preferences developed by conservatives and captured in “Project 2025”, spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation and with the overall intent of restructuring the federal government to suit authoritarian aims. Using a theoretical framework regarding policy entrepreneurs (PEs), I argue that conservative PEs (CPEs), under the aegis of the Republican Party and a second Trump term, are encouraging a shift away from a federal democratic republic to an authoritarian regime. CPEs of interest include elected officials, think tanks, media outlets, interest groups, and political operatives; collectively, these entities constitute a network of mostly unnoticed conservative political professionals using the mechanisms of policy entrepreneurship to damage American democracy. Overall, the actions CPEs take in terms of setting the agenda, controlling the electoral process, and informing the media indicate an eventual abandonment of democratic norms, an inclination towards the establishment of an authoritarian regime, and acceptance of said regime by a significant portion of the American people. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Selected Papers from 54th NCOBPS Annual Conference: Democracy on the Brink: Are We Headed into an Era of Authoritarianism?)

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20 pages, 357 KB

Open AccessConcept Paper

Explaining the Populist Right in the Neoliberal West

by Christian Joppke

Societies 2023, 13(5), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/soc13050110 - 25 Apr 2023

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 9159

Abstract

With the 2016 double shock of Brexit and Trump, the populist right has become a game-changing force on both sides of the North Atlantic. A proper explanation needs to combine political, economic, and cultural elements. Qua populism, the populist right addresses a political condition, which is neoliberalism’s endemic democracy deficit. However, the illiberal democracy that populists advocate is not a cure for it. Cleavage theory in the Lipset–Rokkan tradition sheds light on the rightist orientation and the nationalist content of this populism. The main explanatory challenge remains the combination of economic and cultural factors in the rise of populism. In economic respect, middle-class decline under a neoliberal order seems to be the root cause of populism. However, its agenda is culture-focused, amounting to a nationalist opposition to immigration and cosmopolitanism. This “cultural deflection” is a persistent puzzle. The minimum to conclude is that one-sided accounts of populism in exclusively economic or cultural terms are unconvincing. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Neoliberal Project and the Rise of Populist Nationalism: Ideology and Development since 1991)

10 pages, 2358 KB

Open AccessFeature PaperEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Statistical Mechanics of Political Polarization

by Miron Kaufman, Sanda Kaufman and Hung T. Diep

Entropy 2022, 24(9), 1262; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24091262 - 8 Sep 2022

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 6333

Abstract

Rapidly increasing political polarization threatens democracies around the world. Scholars from several disciplines are assessing and modeling polarization antecedents, processes, and consequences. Social systems are complex and networked. Their constant shifting hinders attempts to trace causes of observed trends, predict their consequences, or mitigate them. We propose an equivalent-neighbor model of polarization dynamics. Using statistical physics techniques, we generate anticipatory scenarios and examine whether leadership and/or external events alleviate or exacerbate polarization. We consider three highly polarized USA groups: Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. We assume that in each group, each individual has a political stance s ranging between left and right. We quantify the noise in this system as a “social temperature” T. Using energy E, we describe individuals’ interactions in time within their own group and with individuals of the other groups. It depends on the stance s as well as on three intra-group and six inter-group coupling parameters. We compute the probability distributions of stances at any time using the Boltzmann probability weight exp(−E/T). We generate average group-stance scenarios in time and explore whether concerted interventions or unexpected shocks can alter them. The results inform on the perils of continuing the current polarization trends, as well as on possibilities of changing course. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Statistical Physics of Opinion Formation and Social Phenomena)

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19 pages, 697 KB

Open AccessArticle

Arab Countries between Winter and Spring: Where Democracy Shock Goes Next!

by Hany Abdel-Latif, Tapas Mishra and Anita Staneva

Economies 2019, 7(1), 20; https://doi.org/10.3390/economies7010020 - 14 Mar 2019

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 6384

Abstract

We examine the role of democracy shocks in the cross-country economic growth processes over a period of five decades since 1960. The recent uprisings that arose independently and spread across the Arab world form the main context of our investigation. We study if (i) a shock to democracy in one country triggers institutional reforms and growth upsurge in the neighbouring countries, and (ii) the magnitude and direction of response to democracy shocks are contingent upon income pathways of countries. To estimate the spillover effects of democracy shocks, we model and estimate growth interdependence among individual countries with similar democratic characteristics. To study the nature of responses of democracy shocks on cross-country growth processes, we build and estimate a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model where we allow countries to be interdependent with regard to bilateral migration and geographical proximity. Using the GVAR model, we also stimulate a positive shock to democracy in Egypt—the most populous Arabic country—and study its impacts on institutional reforms and economic growth in the rest of the Arab World. We find that high and upper-middle income countries are immune to democracy shocks in Egypt, whereas the lower middle and low income countries are susceptible to another revolutionary wave. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue New Institutional Economics)

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