Search Results (2)

The rapid development of urban rail transit brings high efficiency and convenience. At the same time, the increasing passenger flow also remarkably increases the risk of emergencies such as passenger stampedes. The accurate and real-time prediction of dynamic passenger flow is of great significance to the daily operation safety management, emergency prevention, and dispatch of urban rail transit systems. Two deep learning neural networks, a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM NN) and a convolutional neural network (CNN), were used to predict an urban rail transit passenger flow time series and spatiotemporal series, respectively. The experiments were carried out through the passenger flow of Beijing metro stations and lines, and the prediction results of the deep learning methods were compared with several traditional linear models including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and space–time autoregressive integrated moving average (STARIMA). It was shown that the LSTM NN and CNN could better capture the time or spatiotemporal features of the urban rail transit passenger flow and obtain accurate results for the long-term and short-term prediction of passenger flow. The deep learning methods also have strong data adaptability and robustness, and they are more ideal for predicting the passenger flow of stations during peaks and the passenger flow of lines during holidays. Full article

With the rapid increase of private vehicles, traffic congestion has become a worldwide problem. Various models have been proposed to undertake traffic prediction. Among them, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are quite popular for their good performance (simple, low complexity, etc.) in traffic prediction. Localized Space-Time ARIMA (LSTARIMA) improves ARIMA’s prediction accuracy by extending the widely used STARIMA with a dynamic weight matrix. In this paper, a localized space-time autoregressive (LSTAR) model was proposed and a new parameters estimation method was formulated based on the LSTARIMA model to reduce computational complexity for real-time prediction purposes. Moreover, two theorems are given and verified for parameter estimation of our proposed LSTAR model. The simulation results showed that LSTAR provided better prediction accuracy when compared to other time series models such as Shift, autoregressive (AR), seasonal moving average (Seasonal MA), and Space-Time AR (STAR). We found that the prediction accuracy of LSTAR was a bit lower than the LSTARIMA model in the simulation results. However, the computational complexity of the LSTAR model was also lower than the LSTARIMA model. Therefore, there exists a tradeoff between the prediction accuracy and the computational complexity for the two models. Full article