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Keywords = President’s job approval rating

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11 pages, 226 KiB  
Article
Does the Misery Index Influence a U.S. President’s Political Re-Election Prospects?
by Bahram Adrangi and Joseph Macri
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2019, 12(1), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010022 - 1 Feb 2019
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 6426
Abstract
We seek to determine whether a United States President’s job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, [...] Read more.
We seek to determine whether a United States President’s job approval rating is influenced by the Misery Index. This hypothesis is examined in two ways. First, we employ a nonlinear model that includes several macroeconomic variables: the current account deficit, exchange rate, unemployment, inflation, and mortgage rates. Second, we employ probit and logit regression models to calculate the probabilities of U.S. Presidents’ approval ratings to the Misery Index. The results suggest that Layton’s model does not perform well when adopted for the United States. Conversely, the probit and logit regression analysis suggests that the Misery Index significantly impacts the probability of the approval of U.S. Presidents’ performances. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Applied Econometrics)
13 pages, 76 KiB  
Article
Towards an Information Entropy Model of Job Approval Rating: The Clinton Presidency
by Rajendra G. Kulkarni, Roger R. Stough and Kingsley E. Haynes
Entropy 1999, 1(3), 37-49; https://doi.org/10.3390/e1030037 - 30 Sep 1999
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 8001
Abstract
This paper discusses an analytical approach to explaining a nearly constant high job approval rating of president Clinton between January, 1998 and February, 1999. Despite all the controversy and massive information exposure to mostly unflattering news about Mr. Clinton; the public, in nearly [...] Read more.
This paper discusses an analytical approach to explaining a nearly constant high job approval rating of president Clinton between January, 1998 and February, 1999. Despite all the controversy and massive information exposure to mostly unflattering news about Mr. Clinton; the public, in nearly all major opinion polls expressed their wish that Mr. Clinton be allowed to complete his second term in the office. The analytical approach is based on the information entropy theory of Shannon. The model is tested using the data from the polling archives of ABC/Washington Post. The results are confirmed by the Kendall's τ statistics. Full article
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