Search Results (2)

Ageratina adenophora (Spreng.) R.M.King & H.Rob. is one of the most threatening invasive alien plants in China. Since its initial invasion into Yunnan in the 1940s, it spread rapidly northward to southern Mount Nyba in Sichuan, which lies on the eastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. During fieldwork, we found an interesting phenomenon: A. adenophora failed to expand northward across Mount Nyba, even after the opening of the 10 km tunnel, which could have served as a potential corridor for its spread. In this work, to explore the key factors influencing its distribution and spread patterns, we used a combination of ensemble species distribution models with the MigClim model. We found that the temperature annual range (TAR), precipitation of driest month (PDM), highway density (HW), and wind speed (WS) were the most predominant factors affecting its distribution. The north of Mount Nyba is not suitable for A. adenophora survival due to higher TAR. The spatial–temporal dynamic invasion simulation using MigClim further illustrated that the northward invasion of A. adenophora was stopped by Mount Nyba. Overall, Mount Nyba may act as a topographic barrier that causes environmental differences between its south and north sides, preventing the northward invasion of A. adenophora. However, other suitable habitats on the northern side of the mountain still face challenges because A. adenophora is likely to invade via other routes. Therefore, long-term monitoring is needed to prevent human-induced long-distance spread events. Full article

Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, ‘living fossil’ reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans. Full article