Search Results (4)

Background: The aims of this study were (1) to validate the CARS and mCARS methods in an Asian population with atrial fibrillation (AF) and (2) to compare the CARS and mCARS models for absolute risk using the COOL-AF method and CHA₂DS₂VASc scores for the prediction of ischemic stroke or systemic embolism (SSE). Methods: We analyzed the results from a prospective nationwide multicenter AF registry. Follow-up data were collected for 3 years. The main outcomes were SSE. Predictive models of the 3-year SSE of the COOL-AF model, the CHA₂DS₂VASc score, the CARS for the no-OAC group, and the mCARS for the OAC group were developed and evaluated by C-statistics, and calibration plots were created for the whole group, as well as for oral anticoagulant (OAC) users and no-OAC patients. Results: We studied 3405 patients (mean age: 67.8 years; 58.2% male, 75.4% OAC). The incidence rates of SSE were 1.51 (1.26–1.78), 1.93 (1.39–2.60), and 1.37 (1.10–1.68) for all patients, no-OAC patients, and OAC patients, respectively. For the whole population, the COOL-AF score had a C-statistic of 0.697 (0.682–0.713), which was superior to the CHA₂DS₂-VASc [0.655 (0.639–0.671)]. For the no-OAC group, the CARS predicted SSE with a C-statistic of 0.685 (0.652–0.716), which was similar to the CHA₂DS₂-VASc [0.684 (0.651–0.7150] and COOL-AF models [0.692 (0.659–0.723)]. For the OAC group, the mCARS had a C-statistic of 0.687 (0.669–0.705) that was similar to the COOL-AF [0.704 (0.686–0.721)] and better than the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score [0.655 (0.637–0.674)]. Conclusions: The calculation of the individual absolute risks using the CARS and mCARS models can predict SSE in an Asian population. Small differences were evident between the COOL-AF and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores. Full article

Background: This study aimed to determine risk factors and incidence rate and develop a predictive risk model for heart failure for Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: This is a prospective multicenter registry of patients with non-valvular AF in Thailand conducted between 2014 and 2017. The primary outcome was the occurrence of an HF event. A predictive model was developed using a multivariable Cox-proportional model. The predictive model was assessed using C-index, D-statistics, Calibration plot, Brier test, and survival analysis. Results: There were a total of 3402 patients (average age 67.4 years, 58.2% male) with mean follow-up duration of 25.7 ± 10.6 months. Heart failure occurred in 218 patients during follow-up, representing an incidence rate of 3.03 (2.64–3.46) per 100 person-years. There were ten HF clinical factors in the model. The predictive model developed from these factors had a C-index and D-statistic of 0.756 (95% CI: 0.737–0.775) and 1.503 (95% CI: 1.372–1.634), respectively. The calibration plots showed a good agreement between the predicted and observed model with the calibration slope of 0.838. The internal validation was confirmed using the bootstrap method. The Brier score indicated that the model had a good prediction for HF. Conclusions: We provide a validated clinical HF predictive model for patients with AF, with good prediction and discrimination values. Full article

We aimed to determine if low body weight (LBW) status (<50 kg) is independently associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke and bleeding in Thai patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). (1) Background: It has been unclear whether LBW influence clinical outcome of patients with NVAF. (2) Methods: This prospective multicenter cohort study included patients enrolled in the COOL-AF Registry. The following data were collected: demographic data, medical history, risk factors and comorbid conditions, laboratory and investigation data, and medications. Follow-up data were collected every 6 months. Clinical events during follow-up were confirmed by the adjudication committee. (3) Results: A total of 3367 patients were enrolled. The mean age was 67.2 ± 11.2 years. LBW was present in 338 patients (11.3%). Anticoagulant and antiplatelet was prescribed in 75.3% and 26.2% of patients, respectively. Ischemic stroke, major bleeding, intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and death occurred during follow-up in 2.9%, 4.4%, 1.4%, and 7.7% of patients, respectively, during 25.7 months follow-up. LBW was an independent predictor of ischemic stroke, major bleeding, ICH, and death, with a hazard ratio of 2.40, 1.79, 2.37, and 2.65, respectively. (4) Conclusions: LBW was independently associated with increased risk of adverse outcomes in Thai patients with NVAF. This should be carefully considered when balancing the risks and benefits of stroke prevention among patients with different body weights. Full article

Background: Warfarin remains the most commonly used oral anticoagulant (OAC) in Thailand for stroke prevention among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between time in therapeutic range (TTR) after warfarin initiation and clinical outcomes of NVAF. Methods: TTR was calculated by the Rosendaal method from international normalized ratio (INR) data acquired from a nationwide NVAF registry in Thailand. Patients were followed-up every six months. The association between TTR and clinical outcomes was analyzed. Results: There was a total of 2233 patients from 27 hospitals. The average age was 68.4 ± 10.6 years. The average TTR was 53.56 ± 26.37%. Rates of ischemic stroke/TIA, major bleeding, ICH, and death were 1.33, 2.48, 0.76, and 3.3 per 100 person-years, respectively. When patients with a TTR < 65% were compared with those with TTR ≥ 65%, the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for the increased risks of ischemic stroke/TIA, major bleeding, ICH, and death were 3.07, 1.90, 2.34, and 2.11, respectively. Conclusion: Poor TTR control is associated with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with NVAF who were on warfarin. Efforts to ensure good TTR (≥65%) after initiation of warfarin are mandatory to minimize the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Full article