Search Results (3)

Cluster randomized experiments and estimator comparisons are well-documented topics. In this paper, using the datasets of the popular vote in the presidential elections of the United States of America (2012, 2016, 2020), we evaluate the properties (SE, MSE) of three cluster sampling estimators: Ratio estimator, Horvitz–Thompson estimator and the linear regression estimator. While both the Ratio and Horvitz–Thompson estimators are widely used in cluster analysis, we propose a linear regression estimator defined for unequal cluster sizes, which, in many scenarios, performs better than the other two. The main objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to indicate which estimator is most suited for predicting the outcome of the popular vote in the United States of America. We do so by applying the single-stage cluster sampling technique to our data. In the first partition, we use the 50 states plus the District of Columbia as primary sampling units, whereas in the second one, we use 3112 counties instead. Secondly, based on the results of the aforementioned procedure, we estimate the number of clusters in a sample for a set standard error while also considering the diminishing returns from increasing the number of clusters in the sample. The linear regression estimator is best in the majority of the examined cases. This type of comparison can also be used for the estimation of any other country’s elections if prior voting results are available. Full article

Mormon studies in China began in the early 1990s and can be divided into three phases between the years of 2004 and 2017. The first Master’s and Doctoral theses on Mormonism were both published in 2004, and journal articles have also been increasing in frequency since then. The year of 2012 saw a peak, partly because Mormon Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination for the 2012 US presidential election. In 2017, a national-level project, Mormonism and its Bearings on Current Sino-US Relations, funded by the Chinese government, was launched. However, Mormon studies in China is thus far still in its infancy, with few institutions and a small number of scholars. Academic works are limited in number, and high-level achievements are very few. Among the published works, the study of the external factors of Mormonism is far more prevalent than research on its internal factors. Historical, sociological, and political approaches far exceed those of philosophy, theology, and history of thoughts. To Mormon studies, Chinese scholars can and should be making unique contributions, but the potential remains to be tapped. Full article

Facebook posts, YouTube videos, tweets and wooing political bloggers have become standard practice in marketing political campaigns. Research has demonstrated the effect of new media on a host of politically-related behavior, including political participation, knowledge acquisition, group formation and self-efficacy. Yet, issues related to media trust, media performance and candidate evaluations have not been fully explored. In addition, much of the political marketing research looks exclusively at the Millennial age cohort, ignoring other age groups, particularly Baby Boomers. This case study addresses whether attention to traditional (i.e., television, hard-copy newspapers and radio) and online media sources (i.e., political candidate websites, television network websites, online newspapers, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Tumblr and political blogs) about the 2012 U.S. presidential campaign influences Millennials and Baby Boomers’ media trust and performance ratings, as well as candidate evaluations. Panel surveys were completed by both age cohorts, Millennials (n = 431) and Baby Boomers (n = 360), during the last two weeks of the presidential election. Findings indicate that traditional sources, specifically television, rather than online sources are significantly linked to media trust and performance ratings among both Boomers and Millennials. Attention to traditional media for campaign information predicts Boomers’ candidate evaluations, whereas Millennials’ candidate evaluations are influenced by online sources, such as Facebook and candidate websites. Full article