Search Results (7)

Crude oil is a raw and natural, but nonrenewable, resource. It is one of the world’s most important commodities, and its price can have ripple effects throughout the broader economy. Accurately predicting crude oil prices is vital for investment decisions but it remains challenging. Due to the deficiencies neglecting residual factors when forecasting using conventional combination models, such as the autoregressive moving average and the long short-term memory for prediction, the variational mode decomposition (VMD)-empirical mode decomposition (EMD)-Transformer model is proposed to predict crude oil prices in this study. This model integrates a second decomposition and Transformer model-based machine learning method. More specifically, we employ the VMD technique to decompose the original sequence into variational mode filtering (VMF) and a residual sequence, followed by using EMD to decompose the residual sequence. Ultimately, we apply the Transformer model to predict the decomposed modal components and superimpose the results to produce the final forecasted prices. Further empirical test results demonstrate that the proposed quadratic decomposition composite model can comprehensively identify the characteristics of WTI and Brent crude oil futures daily price series. The test results illustrate that the proposed VMD–EMD–Transformer model outperforms the other three models—long short-term memory (LSTM), Transformer, and VMD–Transformer in forecasting crude oil prices. Details are presented in the empirical study part. Full article

The drastic fluctuations in pork prices directly affect the sustainable development of pig farming, agriculture, and feed processing industries, reducing people’s happiness and sense of gain. Although there have been extensive studies on pork price prediction and early warning in the literature, some problems still need further study. Based on the monthly time series data of pork prices and other 11 influencing prices (variables) such as beef, hog, piglet, etc., in China from January 2000 to November 2023, we have established a project pursuit auto-regression (PPAR) and a hybrid PPAR (H-PPAR) model. The results of the PPAR model study show that the monthly pork prices in the lagged periods one to three have an important impact on the current monthly pork price. The first lagged period has the largest and most positive impact. The second lagged period has the second and a negative impact. We built the H-PPAR model using the 11 independent variables (prices), including the prices of corn, hog, mutton, hen’s egg, and beef in lagged period one, the piglet’s price in lagged period six, and by deleting non-important variables. The results of the H-PPAR model show that the hog price in lagged period one is the most critical factor, and beef price and the other six influencing variables are essential factors. The model’s performance metrics show that the PPAR and H-PPAR models outperform approaches such as support vector regression, error backpropagation neural network, dynamic model average, etc., and possess better suitability, applicability, and reliability. Our results forecast the changing trend of the monthly pork price and provide policy insights for administrators and pig farmers to control and adjust the monthly pork price and further enhance the health and sustainable development of the hog farming industry. Full article

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, tourism promotes sustainable economic development. Ensuring tourism safety is an essential prerequisite for its sustainable development. In this paper, based on the three evaluation index systems for tourism safety early warning and the collected sample data, we establish three projection pursuit dynamic cluster (PPDC) models by applying group search optimization, a type of swarm intelligence algorithm. Based on case studies, it is confirmed that the results derived from the PPDC models are consistent with the expert judgments. The importance of the evaluation indicators can be sorted and classified according to the obtained optimal projection pursuit vector coefficients, and the tourism risks of the destinations can be ranked according to the sample projection values. Among the three aspects influencing tourism safety in case one, the stability of the tourism destination has the most significant impact, followed by the frequency of disasters. Of the ten evaluation indicators, the frequency of epidemic disease affects tourism safety the most, and the unemployment ratio affects it the second most. Overall, the PPDC model can be adopted for tourism safety early warning with high-dimensional non-linear and non-normal distribution data modeling, as it overcomes the “curse of dimensionality” and the limitations associated with small sample sizes. Full article

Accurate stock price prediction has an important role in stock investment. Because stock price data are characterized by high frequency, nonlinearity, and long memory, predicting stock prices precisely is challenging. Various forecasting methods have been proposed, from classical time series methods to machine-learning-based methods, such as random forest (RF), recurrent neural network (RNN), convolutional neural network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks and their variants, etc. Each method can reach a certain level of accuracy but also has its limitations. In this paper, a CNN-BiLSTM-Attention-based model is proposed to boost the accuracy of predicting stock prices and indices. First, the temporal features of sequence data are extracted using a convolutional neural network (CNN) and bi-directional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM) network. Then, an attention mechanism is introduced to fit weight assignments to the information features automatically; and finally, the final prediction results are output through the dense layer. The proposed method was first used to predict the price of the Chinese stock index—the CSI300 index and was found to be more accurate than any of the other three methods—LSTM, CNN-LSTM, CNN-LSTM-Attention. In order to investigate whether the proposed model is robustly effective in predicting stock indices, three other stock indices in China and eight international stock indices were selected to test, and the robust effectiveness of the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model in predicting stock prices was confirmed. Comparing this method with the LSTM, CNN-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM-Attention models, it is found that the accuracy of stock price prediction is highest using the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model in almost all cases. Full article

To effectively guide and stimulate the green transformation behavior of resource industries and promote the sustainable and high-quality development of the region, it is necessary to deeply analyze and clarify the barrier factors of the green transformation behavior of resource industries. This study measures the green transformation efficiency of the resource industries by selecting the panel data of the mining industry from 29 Chinese provinces, based on the DEA-SBM model, and employing the ideas and methods of system engineering, for the years 2012–2019. Hence, the study employs the Tobit model to verify the factors that hinder the green transformation behavior of the resource industries. The results show that the (1) resource industries’ barriers against the green transformation behavior form a significant barrier effect by inhibiting the efficiency of green transformation; (2) there is a difference in the intensity of the effect of the resource industries’ barriers to the green transformation behavior; (3) regional heterogeneity exists in the effects of the barriers to the green transformation behavior of the resource industries. The findings of the study can provide a scientific basis for further improving the effectiveness of policies related to the green transformation behavior of resource industries. Full article

The rational allocation and utilization of key corporate resources is the key to the success of collaborative innovation projects. Finding an optimal strategy for the allocation and utilization of key resources is of great significance for promoting the smooth progress of cooperative both innovation parties and increasing project returns. Therefore, from the perspective of the repeated games of the project participants, this article studies the optimal allocation and utilization of key resources of the enterprise in collaborative innovation projects. In this study, nine scenarios and eighteen strategic combinations of resources allocation and utilization by collaborative innovation partners are explored. Explicit expressions for the components of sixteen equilibrium points in terms of parameters are derived. Among these equilibrium points, four stable solutions are determined. These stable solutions correspond to the optimal strategies for enterprises allocating key resources and A&R parties to use these resources in different scenarios, and these strategies enable partners to maximize their interests. On this basis, some suggestions are put forward to promote cooperation and improve project performance. Full article

This study conducted a comprehensive and systematic investigation of the influencing factors for collaborative innovation project (CIP) performance. First, a theoretical framework model was constructed, and then a structural equation model (SEM) was used for an empirical analysis of 199 CIPs. Furthermore, we divided the factors into tangible and intangible categories and considered the impact mechanism of nine typical factors on project performance. The results are as follows: (1) All nine factors had a significant positive impact on the performance of collaborative innovation projects, among which benefit distribution and collaborative innovation capability were the most important. (2) Benefit distribution, resource dependence, organizational climate, and collaborative innovation affected project performance, both directly and indirectly. (3) Effective communication, leadership support, knowledge sharing, and collaborative innovation ability only had a direct influence, while the incentive mechanism played only an indirect role. Finally, three suggestions were put forward on the idea of high-quality, sustainable development. Full article