Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. The Treatment of Population in Future Scenarios
3. The United Nations Projections
4. The World Population Is Growing Faster than We Are Told
5. Projecting Fertility Decline
6. Alternative Projections of Global Population
- The population component of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways mentioned above, developed for climate change modelling under the IPCC [50]. These projections were developed by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital in Austria. The SSP projections originally had a base year of 2010, while the 2018 revision (“version 2”) has a base year of 2015 [51].
- The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington. Their projections were developed as part of their Global Burden of Disease project [52].
- The Earth4All project, including members of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre and the BI Norwegian Business School [53]. The population modelling is part of a larger exercise in mapping out a sustainable future for humanity. The project is sponsored by the Club of Rome, as a follow-up to its famous 1972 Limits to Growth study, featuring MIT’s then-groundbreaking Earth3 model [54]. Earth4All is a creative extension of Earth4, intended to be Earth3’s successor.
7. Drivers of Fertility Decline
8. Living Sustainably with Dignity for All
9. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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O’Sullivan, J.N. Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures. World 2023, 4, 545-568. https://doi.org/10.3390/world4030034
O’Sullivan JN. Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures. World. 2023; 4(3):545-568. https://doi.org/10.3390/world4030034
Chicago/Turabian StyleO’Sullivan, Jane N. 2023. "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures" World 4, no. 3: 545-568. https://doi.org/10.3390/world4030034