Epidemiological Monitoring of COVID-19 in a Brazilian City: The Interface between the Economic Policies, Commercial Behavior, and Pandemic Control
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
- Rigid: Agriculture, livestock, and related areas services; manufacturing of food and beverage products; food services; financial services (banking and insurance); production chain and essential accessory activities; construction; factories; energy; steel industry; health; communication and press; transport; vehicles; post offices; water and sewage treatment; hotels; legal activities; higher education and public transport.
- Intermediate: Activities of the rigid phase; recreation and leisure activities; rent; curricular and extracurricular teaching; activities related to cultural and environmental heritage; travel agency; sports activities and social clubs; publicity; professional, scientific, and technical activities; sales representatives; photographic activities; beauty and aesthetic salons; jewelry and costume jewelry; driver training; duty-free stores; design and decoration; books and stationery; agricultural products; sporting goods, electronic games, weapons, and fireworks; antiques; department and varieties; other ancillary activities.
- Flexible: Activities of the rigid and intermediate phases; events; recreation and leisure activities; movie theaters; other personal service activities.
3. Results
3.1. Behavior of Cases and Deaths
3.2. Profile of Hospitalized Individuals
3.3. Selecting The Regression Model for Multivariate Analysis of Deaths
3.4. Applying the Poisson Model
3.5. Applying Univariate Regressions to Correlate Screening Tests and Deaths
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable | Specification | Total | Daily Average | CI (95%) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Confirmed cases | - | 86,585 | 237.22 | ±15.49 |
Confirmed deaths | - | 2450 | 6.71 | ±0.68 |
Hospitalizations | ICU | 52,997 | 145.20 | ±9.51 |
Nursery | 65,963 | 180.72 | ±13.57 | |
Tests | - | 365,512 | 1001.40 | ±53.84 |
Sex | Male | 68,518 | 187.72 | ±12.74 |
Female | 50,500 | 138.36 | ±10.30 | |
Age | 0–5 | 1886 | 5.17 | ±0.41 |
6–12 | 497 | 1.36 | ±0.13 | |
13–39 | 17,200 | 47.12 | ±3.36 | |
40–59 | 46,106 | 126.32 | ±9.29 | |
60–69 | 24,440 | 66.96 | ±5.83 | |
70–79 | 17,392 | 47.65 | ±3.37 | |
80+ | 11,526 | 31.58 | ±2.18 | |
Phases of the municipal plan | Flexible | 77 * | - | - |
Intermediary | 244 * | - | - | |
Rigid | 44 * | - | - |
Models | Degrees of Freedom | LogLik | Chi-Square | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|---|
Poisson | 16 | −750.43 | ||
Negative binomial | 17 | −750.44 | 0.0098 | 0.9212 |
Parameter | State | Coefficient |
---|---|---|
Intercept | - | −0.5421 *** |
(0.1403) | ||
Phases of the municipal plan | Intermediary | 1.1016 *** |
(0.1735) | ||
Rigid | 0.9978 *** | |
(0.2308) | ||
Confirmed cases | - | 0.0001 |
Type of hospitalization | (0.0004) | |
ICU | −0.0133 | |
(0.0075) | ||
Nursery | −0.0149 * | |
(0.0076) | ||
Screening tests performed | - | −0.0001 ** |
(0.0000) | ||
Sex | Male | 0.0119 |
(0.0064) | ||
Female | 0.0092 | |
(0.0066) | ||
Age | 0–5 | −0.0020 |
(0.0084) | ||
6–12 | 0.0110 | |
(0.0169) | ||
13–39 | 0.0138 ** | |
(0.0053) | ||
40–59 | 0.0032 | |
(0.0040) | ||
60–69 | 0.0103 * | |
(0.0046) | ||
70–79 | 0.0080 | |
(0.0043) | ||
80 or more | 0.0034 | |
(0.0051) | ||
Indicators | Values | |
N | 365 | |
AIC | 1532.8649 | |
BIC | 1595.2633 |
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de Brito, V.P.; Carrijo, A.M.M.; Martins, M.V.T.; de Oliveira, S.V. Epidemiological Monitoring of COVID-19 in a Brazilian City: The Interface between the Economic Policies, Commercial Behavior, and Pandemic Control. World 2022, 3, 344-356. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3020019
de Brito VP, Carrijo AMM, Martins MVT, de Oliveira SV. Epidemiological Monitoring of COVID-19 in a Brazilian City: The Interface between the Economic Policies, Commercial Behavior, and Pandemic Control. World. 2022; 3(2):344-356. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3020019
Chicago/Turabian Stylede Brito, Veronica Perius, Alice Mirane Malta Carrijo, Marcos Vinicius Teixeira Martins, and Stefan Vilges de Oliveira. 2022. "Epidemiological Monitoring of COVID-19 in a Brazilian City: The Interface between the Economic Policies, Commercial Behavior, and Pandemic Control" World 3, no. 2: 344-356. https://doi.org/10.3390/world3020019