Interplay of Climate Change, Population Growth, and Building Stock Expansion in Egypt: Pathways to Energy-Efficient Building Development ^†

This research examines the complex relationship between climate change, rapid population growth, and building stock expansion in Egypt, as well as their combined impact on energy demand and urban sustainability, to address the rapidly increasing electricity demand. This study uses a mixed-methods approach, including quantitative analysis to examine climatic data (1970–2100), demographic trends, and building energy consumption patterns, quantifying their synergistic effects; a qualitative evaluation of policy frameworks and urban planning strategies; and building energy performance simulation using DesignBuilder to utilize climate-responsive design techniques for energy reduction. Finally, this study proposes energy-efficient design guidance. The research findings reveal that Egypt’s unique hot–arid climate, projected to warm by 4 °C by 2100, combined with a population set to reach 160 million by 2050, has driven the near-doubling of building stock since 1986—with residential buildings accounting for 70–83% of structures and 60% of national electricity use. The research results highlight the importance of implementing climate-responsive design strategies (optimized building envelope thermal insulation and energy-efficient HVAC system) in Egypt’s built environment to reduce electricity consumption by up to 40%, thereby aligning urban growth with sustainability objectives. These insights are scalable to other arid, rapidly urbanizing regions globally.