Selection of P2X Technical Routes for Integrated Energy Production Units Based on Technical and Economic Analysis

In pursuit of energy decarbonization and supply security, the integrated energy production unit (IEPU) is regarded as a notable multi-technology energy production model integrating coal-fired power, carbon capture, and renewable energy. As a core component of the IEPU, Power-to-X (P2X) technology encompasses various technical routes with distinct economic performance and technological maturity at different development stages. Thus, selecting the most techno-economically optimal route is critical. In view of this, this paper proposes an integrated decision-making framework for the selection of P2X technology routes in IEPU, which combines “technology selection—economic analysis—risk assessment”. Firstly, a decision model for key P2X processes is established, with the levelized cost of hydrogen and unit hydrogen conversion revenue as core performance metrics to identify the optimal technology combination for hydrogen production and utilization. Secondly, integrating the aforementioned optimized technical route, a life-cycle economic benefit evaluation model is constructed for IEPU retrofit projects to systematically assess the overall economic feasibility of the IEPU project. Thirdly, an investment risk assessment model for P2X-integrated IEPU retrofits is established based on interval number theory, which can quantify project risks under fluctuations of critical parameters such as electricity and carbon prices. Finally, a case study of a 600 MW coal-fired unit retrofit demonstrates that “alkaline electrolysis + methane synthesis” constitutes the optimal P2X technology combination. However, its profitability is relatively sensitive to fluctuations in external market parameters, necessitating the implementation of corresponding risk management strategies.