Is There Financialization of Housing Prices? Empirical Evidence from Santiago de Chile
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | Obs | Min. | Max. | Mean | St. Dv. | Kurtosis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Housing Prices (ln) | 472,000 | 2020 | 5060 | 3658 | 0.434 | 1.554 |
IPSA (Santiago Blue Chip Index) (ln) | 472,000 | 7810 | 8670 | 8341 | 0.155 | 1.304 |
Monetary Policy Rate Chilean Central Bank (ln) | 472,000 | −0.690 | 2090 | 1157 | 0.554 | 4.419 |
Cash Circulation (ln) | 472,000 | 13,770 | 14,820 | 14,414 | 0.292 | −1.145 |
Inflation (ln) | 472,000 | 9940 | 10,220 | 10,080 | 0.085 | −1.381 |
Mortgage Interest Rate (ln) | 472,000 | 1150 | 1800 | 1378 | 0.119 | 0.395 |
CSI 300 (ln) | 472,000 | 7560 | 8570 | 8004 | 0.206 | −0.808 |
FTSE 100 (ln) | 472,000 | 8260 | 8960 | 8743 | 0.135 | 1.010 |
Dow Jones (ln) | 472,000 | 8900 | 10,190 | 9646 | 0.285 | −0.487 |
Lag | LogL | LR | FPE | AIC | SC | HQ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 10,906.55 | NA | 8.32 × 10−33 | −48.32617 | −48.24412 | −48.29383 |
1 | 11,195.36 | 564.8127 | 3.31 × 10−33 | −49.24772 | −48.42725 * | −48.92437 * |
2 | 11,288.50 | 178.4303 | 3.14 × 10−33 | −49.30155 | −47.74266 | −48.68719 |
3 | 11,375.56 | 163.3013 | 3.06 × 10−33 | −49.32840 | −47.03109 | −48.42303 |
4 | 11,458.73 | 152.7111 | 3.03 × 10−33 | −49.33807 | −46.30233 | −48.14168 |
5 | 11,537.39 | 141.2606 | 3.07 × 10−33 | −49.32766 | −45.55350 | −47.84026 |
6 | 11,639.13 | 178.6770 | 2.82 × 10−33 * | −49.41966 * | −49.0708 | −47.64125 |
7 | 11,714.53 | 129.3867 | 2.91 × 10−33 | −49.39479 | −44.14378 | −47.32537 |
8 | 11,766.53 | 87.17210 | 3.33 × 10−33 | −49.26621 | −43.27677 | −46.90576 |
9 | 11,833.97 | 110.3534 | 3.58 × 10−33 | −49.20606 | −42.47821 | −46.55461 |
10 | 11,909.86 | 121.1604 | 3.71 × 10−33 | −49.18342 | −41.71714 | −46.24095 |
11 | 11,966.63 | 88.35669 | 4.20 × 10−33 | −49.07595 | −40.87124 | −45.84246 |
12 | 12,029.92 | 96.00096 | 4.64 × 10−33 | −48.99745 | −40.05432 | −45.47295 |
13 | 12,086.15 | 83.02446 | 5.31 × 10−33 | −48.88757 | −39.20602 | −45.07206 |
14 | 12,139.93 | 77.27138 | 6.16 × 10−33 | −48.76686 | −38.34689 | −44.66034 |
15 | 12,214.02 | 103.5024* | 6.57 × 10−33 | −48.73624 | −37.57784 | −44.33870 |
16 | 12,286.64 | 98.54849 | 7.09 × 10−33 | −48.69909 | −36.80227 | −44.01054 |
17 | 12,359.48 | 95.93558 | 7.68 × 10−33 | −48.66290 | −36.02766 | −43.68334 |
18 | 12,432.43 | 93.16378 | 8.37 × 10−33 | −48.62719 | −35.25352 | −43.35661 |
19 | 12,508.79 | 94.47243 | 9.05 × 10−33 | −48.60660 | −34.49451 | −43.04501 |
20 | 12,584.95 | 91.19765 | 9.87 × 10−33 | −48.58516 | −33.73465 | −42.73256 |
Variable | p-Value | Lags | Obs |
---|---|---|---|
Housing Prices | 5.14 × 10−20 | 15 | 470 |
IPSA | 4.11 × 10−27 | 15 | 470 |
Monetary Policy Rate | 1.25 × 10−9 | 15 | 470 |
Cash Circulation | 1.72 × 10−11 | 15 | 470 |
Inflation | 6.25 × 10−17 | 15 | 470 |
Mortgage Interest Rate | 3.80 × 10−12 | 15 | 470 |
CSI 300 | 1.99 × 10−38 | 15 | 470 |
FTSE 100 | 6.04 × 10−29 | 15 | 470 |
Dow Jones | 1.22 × 10−36 | 15 | 470 |
Variables on Housing Prices | Lags | Engle-Granger Coefficient | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|
IPSA | 15 | −7.1113275 | 0.01 |
Monetary Policy Rate | 15 | −6.8507553 | 0.01 |
Cash Circulation | 15 | −7.6780385 | 0.01 |
Inflation | 15 | −7.5782503 | 0.01 |
Mortgage Interest Rate | 15 | −7.6728005 | 0.01 |
CSI 300 | 15 | −7.7215235 | 0.01 |
FTSE 100 | 15 | −7.8595879 | 0.01 |
Dow Jones | 15 | −7.6870395 | 0.01 |
Lags | Null Hypothesis: | Cash Circulation Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | CSI 300 Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | Dow Jones Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | FTSE 100 Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | Mortgage Interest Rate Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | IPSA Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | Monetary Policy Rate Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices | Inflation Does Not Granger Cause Housing Prices |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 | F-Statistic | 1.66765 | 1.31067 | 1.85615 | 2.31413 | 1.91560 | 1.62597 | 4.23989 | 0.86258 |
Prob. | 0.0545 | 0.1915 | 0.0258 | 0.0035 | 0.0202 | 0.0638 | 0.0000002 | 0.607 | |
14 | F-Statistic | 1.21990 | 1.23327 | 1.79310 | 2.37369 | 2.13138 | 1.57166 | 4.15127 | 0.84689 |
Prob. | 0.2572 | 0.2476 | 0.0373 | 0.0035 | 0.0097 | 0.0838 | 0.0000008 | 0.6177 | |
13 | F-Statistic | 1.33299 | 1.24443 | 1.90314 | 2.51838 | 2.24169 | 1.38144 | 4.16712 | 0.82436 |
Prob. | 0.1901 | 0.2447 | 0.028 | 0.0024 | 0.0076 | 0.1646 | 0.000002 | 0.6343 | |
12 | F-Statistic | 1.28750 | 1.16250 | 2.32321 | 3.05399 | 2.57383 | 1.37502 | 4.72740 | 0.84739 |
Prob. | 0.2226 | 0.3079 | 0.0069 | 0.0004 | 0.0026 | 0.1745 | 0.0000003 | 0.6013 | |
11 | F-Statistic | 1.23002 | 1.13423 | 2.61586 | 3.37394 | 2.88455 | 1.20657 | 5.14049 | 0.95678 |
Prob. | 0.2642 | 0.3324 | 0.0031 | 0.0002 | 0.0011 | 0.2799 | 0.0000001 | 0.4855 | |
10 | F-Statistic | 1.48642 | 1.05652 | 1.54485 | 2.28446 | 3.24311 | 1.17396 | 3.56911 | 1.14528 |
Prob. | 0.1414 | 0.3949 | 0.1208 | 0.0129 | 0.0005 | 0.3063 | 0.0001 | 0.3266 | |
9 | F-Statistic | 1.68988 | 1.03540 | 1.82947 | 2.36826 | 3.89792 | 1.25146 | 4.15348 | 1.33111 |
Prob. | 0.089 | 0.4105 | 0.061 | 0.0127 | 0.00009 | 0.2616 | 0.00004 | 0.2182 | |
8 | F-Statistic | 1.95529 | 1.28220 | 1.80430 | 1.98247 | 3.78079 | 1.49112 | 4.83081 | 1.45661 |
Prob. | 0.0505 | 0.2506 | 0.0743 | 0.0471 | 0.0003 | 0.158 | 0.00001 | 0.1709 | |
7 | F-Statistic | 1.88608 | 1.52580 | 2.42361 | 2.58599 | 3.75622 | 1.54800 | 3.54258 | 1.88767 |
Prob. | 0.0701 | 0.1564 | 0.0191 | 0.0127 | 0.0006 | 0.1491 | 0.001 | 0.0698 | |
6 | F-Statistic | 2.54386 | 1.77635 | 3.11327 | 3.31692 | 4.56755 | 1.58742 | 2.82957 | 2.27513 |
Prob. | 0.0197 | 0.1022 | 0.0053 | 0.0033 | 0.0002 | 0.149 | 0.0103 | 0.0356 | |
5 | F-Statistic | 4.09431 | 1.72642 | 3.86161 | 4.18497 | 4.69034 | 1.99215 | 3.62522 | 3.15170 |
Prob. | 0.0012 | 0.1271 | 0.0019 | 0.001 | 0.0003 | 0.0785 | 0.0032 | 0.0083 | |
4 | F-Statistic | 6.39456 | 1.95411 | 5.98701 | 6.23305 | 6.50166 | 2.92652 | 4.11817 | 5.04417 |
Prob. | 0.00005 | 0.1005 | 0.0001 | 0.00007 | 0.00004 | 0.0207 | 0.0027 | 0.0005 | |
3 | F-Statistic | 9.66062 | 2.34576 | 8.54242 | 8.97276 | 9.88393 | 3.50615 | 5.43691 | 8.03374 |
Prob. | 0.000003 | 0.0722 | 0.00002 | 0.000009 | 0.000003 | 0.0154 | 0.0011 | 0.00003 | |
2 | F-Statistic | 20.0068 | 3.92675 | 17.1855 | 17.7262 | 14.3311 | 7.67253 | 3.57453 | 16.4387 |
Prob. | 0.000000005 | 0.0204 | 0.00000006 | 0.00000004 | 0.0000009 | 0.0005 | 0.0288 | 0.0000001 | |
1 | F-Statistic | 40.9455 | 7.14528 | 34.8067 | 36.5728 | 30.8936 | 16.8868 | 4.81535 | 33.4936 |
Prob. | 4 × 10−10 | 0.0078 | 0.000000007 | 0.000000003 | 0.00000005 | 0.00005 | 0.0287 | 0.00000001 |
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Vergara-Perucich, J.-F. Is There Financialization of Housing Prices? Empirical Evidence from Santiago de Chile. Economies 2022, 10, 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10060125
Vergara-Perucich J-F. Is There Financialization of Housing Prices? Empirical Evidence from Santiago de Chile. Economies. 2022; 10(6):125. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10060125
Chicago/Turabian StyleVergara-Perucich, José-Francisco. 2022. "Is There Financialization of Housing Prices? Empirical Evidence from Santiago de Chile" Economies 10, no. 6: 125. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies10060125