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House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

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Department of Economics, Helmut-Schmidt-University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, Hamburg 22008, Germany
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Department of Economics, WHU - Otto - Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, Vallendar 56179, Germany
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Department of Economics, European University Viadrina, P.O.B. 1786, 15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
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Department of Business and Economics, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1(1), 16-29; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijfs1010016
Received: 29 August 2012 / Revised: 29 September 2012 / Accepted: 24 October 2012 / Published: 2 November 2012
We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time. View Full-Text
Keywords: forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding forecasts; house prices; housing starts; herding
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Pierdzioch, C.; Rülke, J.C.; Stadtmann, G. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis. Int. J. Financial Stud. 2013, 1, 16-29.

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