# A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument

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## Abstract

**:**

## 1. Introduction

- “The fraction of human-level civilizations that reach a posthuman stage (that is, one capable of running high-fidelity ancestor simulations) is very close to zero”;
- “The fraction of posthuman civilizations that are interested in running simulations of their evolutionary history, or variations thereof, is very close to zero”;
- “The fraction of all people with our kind of experiences that are living in a simulation is very close to one”.

## 2. A Statistical Analysis of the Simulation Argument

#### 2.1. Dreams within Dreams

#### 2.2. Simulation Counting

#### 2.3. Counting Nulliparous Simulations

#### 2.4. The Physical Hypothesis

#### 2.5. Bayes Factors Conditioned Upon Nulliparity

#### 2.6. Understanding the Transition from Near-Certainty to Ambiguity

#### 2.6.1. Neglecting our Nulliparity

#### 2.6.2. Negating Bayesian Model Comparison

#### 2.7. Bayesian Model Averaging with the “Cogito, Ergo Sum” Conditional

#### 2.8. Bayesian Model Averaging with the Nulliparous Conditional

#### 2.9. What If We Were Parous?

## 3. Discussion

## Funding

## Acknowledgments

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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1. | Although deception may not even necessary, since the sims have no experience/knowledge of base reality, they cannot even judge plainly unnatural phenomenon as unphysical. |

2. | This can be thought of as an example of applying Gott’s Copernican Principle [14], if most realities are X, then we most likely live in an X-type reality. |

**Figure 1.**An illustrative depiction of a hypothetical hierarchical framework of simulated realities embedded spawned from a base civilization.

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Kipping, D.
A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument. *Universe* **2020**, *6*, 109.
https://doi.org/10.3390/universe6080109

**AMA Style**

Kipping D.
A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument. *Universe*. 2020; 6(8):109.
https://doi.org/10.3390/universe6080109

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Kipping, David.
2020. "A Bayesian Approach to the Simulation Argument" *Universe* 6, no. 8: 109.
https://doi.org/10.3390/universe6080109