# A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule

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## Abstract

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## 1. Introduction

## 2. Basics and Strengths of the ER Rule in Representing and Aggregating Uncertain Information

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## 3. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the ER Rule

#### 3.1. Formulation of Risk Assessment Hierarchy

#### 3.2. Representation of Both Qualitative and Quantitative Assessment Information

#### 3.3. Elicitation of Attribute Weights and Information Reliabilities

#### 3.4. Aggregation of Assessment Information Using the ER Rule

#### 3.5. Quantification and Ranking of Risks Using Utility-Based Transformation

## 4. A Case Study on the Fire/Explosion Risk Assessment of Marine Vessels

## 5. Concluding Remarks

## Acknowledgments

## Author Contributions

## Conflicts of Interest

## References

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**Figure 3.**Marine accident investigation branch (MAIB) statistics on fire/explosion risks of UK merchant vessels.

Pairwise Comparisons | Managerial | Operative | Technical | Calculated AHP Weights |
---|---|---|---|---|

Managerial | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.55 |

Operative | 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 |

Technical | 1/3 | 1 | 1 | 0.21 |

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**MDPI and ACS Style**

Ji, X.; Jiang, J.; Sun, J.; Chen, Y.-W. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule. *Systems* **2017**, *5*, 9.
https://doi.org/10.3390/systems5010009

**AMA Style**

Ji X, Jiang J, Sun J, Chen Y-W. A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule. *Systems*. 2017; 5(1):9.
https://doi.org/10.3390/systems5010009

**Chicago/Turabian Style**

Ji, Xiaoxiao, Jiang Jiang, Jianbin Sun, and Yu-Wang Chen. 2017. "A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule" *Systems* 5, no. 1: 9.
https://doi.org/10.3390/systems5010009