Next Article in Journal
Best-Fit Probability Models for Maximum Monthly Rainfall in Bangladesh Using Gaussian Mixture Distributions
Next Article in Special Issue
The Influence of Crude Oil on Mechanistic Detachment Rate Parameters
Previous Article in Journal
Geoheritage, Geotourism and the Cultural Landscape: Enhancing the Visitor Experience and Promoting Geoconservation
Previous Article in Special Issue
Effects of pH-Induced Changes in Soil Physical Characteristics on the Development of Soil Water Erosion
Article Menu
Issue 4 (April) cover image

Export Article

Open AccessArticle
Geosciences 2018, 8(4), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040137

Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis

1
Departamento de Geología, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), 22860 Ensenada, Mexico
2
Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
3
National Sedimentation Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Oxford, MS 38655, USA
4
Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
5
Department of Rural Engineering, University of Córdoba, 14071 Cordoba, Spain
6
San Diego Border Office, United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), San Diego, CA 92101, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 26 February 2018 / Revised: 7 April 2018 / Accepted: 7 April 2018 / Published: 17 April 2018
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Soil Hydrology and Erosion)
Full-Text   |   PDF [3013 KB, uploaded 3 May 2018]   |  

Abstract

Modelling gully erosion in urban areas is challenging due to difficulties with equifinality and parameter identification, which complicates quantification 0of management impacts on runoff and sediment production. We calibrated a model (AnnAGNPS) of an ephemeral gully network that formed on unpaved roads following a storm event in an urban watershed (0.2 km2) in Tijuana, Mexico. Latin hypercube sampling was used to create 500 parameter ensembles. Modelled sediment load was most sensitive to the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number, tillage depth (TD), and critical shear stress (τc). Twenty-one parameter ensembles gave acceptable error (behavioural models), though changes in parameters governing runoff generation (SCS curve number, Manning’s n) were compensated by changes in parameters describing soil properties (TD, τc), resulting in uncertainty in the optimal parameter values. The most suitable parameter combinations or “behavioural models” were used to evaluate uncertainty under management scenarios. Paving the roads increased runoff by 146–227%, increased peak discharge by 178–575%, and decreased sediment load by 90–94% depending on the ensemble. The method can be used in other watersheds to simulate runoff and gully erosion, to quantify the uncertainty of model-estimated impacts of management activities on runoff and erosion, and to suggest critical field measurements to reduce uncertainties in complex urban environments. View Full-Text
Keywords: gully erosion; unpaved roads; AnnAGNPS model; model equifinality; urbanization; watershed management gully erosion; unpaved roads; AnnAGNPS model; model equifinality; urbanization; watershed management
Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
SciFeed

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Gudino-Elizondo, N.; Biggs, T.W.; Bingner, R.L.; Yuan, Y.; Langendoen, E.J.; Taniguchi, K.T.; Kretzschmar, T.; Taguas, E.V.; Liden, D. Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis. Geosciences 2018, 8, 137.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

1

Comments

[Return to top]
Geosciences EISSN 2076-3263 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top