Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis

Gudino-Elizondo, Napoleon; Biggs, Trent W.; Bingner, Ronald L.; Yuan, Yongping; Langendoen, Eddy J.; Taniguchi, Kristine T.; Kretzschmar, Thomas; Taguas, Encarnacion V.; Liden, Douglas

doi:10.3390/geosciences8040137

Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Edit a Special Issue

Article Menu

...

Open AccessArticle

Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis

Napoleon Gudino-Elizondo

^1,2,*

³,

⁴

Kristine T. Taniguchi

Thomas Kretzschmar

¹,

Encarnacion V. Taguas

⁵

and

Douglas Liden

⁶

Departamento de Geología, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), 22860 Ensenada, Mexico

Department of Geography, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA

National Sedimentation Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Oxford, MS 38655, USA

⁴

Office of Research and Development, United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA

⁵

Department of Rural Engineering, University of Córdoba, 14071 Cordoba, Spain

⁶

San Diego Border Office, United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), San Diego, CA 92101, USA

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Geosciences 2018, 8(4), 137; https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040137

Received: 26 February 2018 / Revised: 7 April 2018 / Accepted: 7 April 2018 / Published: 17 April 2018

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Soil Hydrology and Erosion)

View Full-Text Download PDF

Browse Figures

Citation Export

Abstract

Modelling gully erosion in urban areas is challenging due to difficulties with equifinality and parameter identification, which complicates quantification 0of management impacts on runoff and sediment production. We calibrated a model (AnnAGNPS) of an ephemeral gully network that formed on unpaved roads following a storm event in an urban watershed (0.2 km²) in Tijuana, Mexico. Latin hypercube sampling was used to create 500 parameter ensembles. Modelled sediment load was most sensitive to the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number, tillage depth (T_D), and critical shear stress (τ_c). Twenty-one parameter ensembles gave acceptable error (behavioural models), though changes in parameters governing runoff generation (SCS curve number, Manning’s n) were compensated by changes in parameters describing soil properties (T_D, τ_c), resulting in uncertainty in the optimal parameter values. The most suitable parameter combinations or “behavioural models” were used to evaluate uncertainty under management scenarios. Paving the roads increased runoff by 146–227%, increased peak discharge by 178–575%, and decreased sediment load by 90–94% depending on the ensemble. The method can be used in other watersheds to simulate runoff and gully erosion, to quantify the uncertainty of model-estimated impacts of management activities on runoff and erosion, and to suggest critical field measurements to reduce uncertainties in complex urban environments. View Full-Text

Keywords: gully erosion; unpaved roads; AnnAGNPS model; model equifinality; urbanization; watershed management

▼ Show Figures

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Gudino-Elizondo, N.; Biggs, T.W.; Bingner, R.L.; Yuan, Y.; Langendoen, E.J.; Taniguchi, K.T.; Kretzschmar, T.; Taguas, E.V.; Liden, D. Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis. Geosciences 2018, 8, 137. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040137

AMA Style

Gudino-Elizondo N, Biggs TW, Bingner RL, Yuan Y, Langendoen EJ, Taniguchi KT, Kretzschmar T, Taguas EV, Liden D. Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis. Geosciences. 2018; 8(4):137. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040137

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gudino-Elizondo, Napoleon, Trent W. Biggs, Ronald L. Bingner, Yongping Yuan, Eddy J. Langendoen, Kristine T. Taniguchi, Thomas Kretzschmar, Encarnacion V. Taguas, and Douglas Liden. 2018. "Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis" Geosciences 8, no. 4: 137. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040137

Find Other Styles

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Abstract views Pdf views Html views

Article Menu

Modelling Ephemeral Gully Erosion from Unpaved Urban Roads: Equifinality and Implications for Scenario Analysis

Abstract

Share and Cite

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics

Article Access Map by Country/Region

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI