Refuge Lake Reclassification in 620 Minnesota Cisco Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Methodology Overview
2.2. Four Types of Virtual Lakes Representing 620 Cisco Lakes in Minnesota
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Variable Benchmark Periods
3.2. AvgATDO3VB of Four Types Virtual Lakes
3.3. Validation of Refuge Lake Reclassification
3.4. Cisco Lakes Reclassification in Minnesota
3.5. Comparison and Discussion of Reclassification with Results in the Previous Study
4. Summary and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Lake Type (Region) 1 | Lake ID 2 | Name | As (ha) | Hmax (m) | GR (m−0.5) | SD (m) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M (Nor) | 38071500 | Triangle | 125.10 | 13.11 | 2.55 | 5.42 |
M (Mid) | 11086600 | Tamarack | 4.33 | 13.11 | 1.10 | 3.81 |
M (Nor) | 16058000 | Granite | 8.10 | 13.72 | 1.23 | 4.25 |
M (Nor) | 38052400 | Portage | 27.94 | 13.72 | 1.68 | 4.27 |
M (Nor) | 69006600 | Little Long | 118.62 | 13.72 | 2.41 | 5.56 |
M (Mid) | 11046900 | Anway | 8.91 | 13.72 | 1.26 | 3.96 |
M (Mid) | 11004700 | Mule | 25.10 | 13.72 | 1.63 | 4.57 |
M (Mid) | 18021100 | Blue | 39.27 | 13.72 | 1.83 | 7.74 |
M (Mid) | 31077500 | No-ta-she-bun | 96.36 | 13.72 | 2.28 | 6.65 |
M (Mid) | 18020800 | Allen | 20.24 | 14.02 | 1.51 | 4.11 |
M (Mid) | 18035800 | Bass | 46.96 | 14.32 | 1.83 | 5.06 |
M (Mid) | 16002700 | McFarland | 155.47 | 14.93 | 2.36 | 5.26 |
M (Mid) | 1005700 | Little Ball Bluff | 13.77 | 14.93 | 1.29 | 3.66 |
MD (Nor) | 16061600 | Devils Elbow | 35.99 | 15.24 | 1.61 | 3.96 |
MD (Nor) | 31019600 | Poplar | 39.27 | 15.24 | 1.64 | 3.96 |
MD (Mid) | 31027800 | Barwise | 37.25 | 15.24 | 1.62 | 5.79 |
MD (Nor) | 38071400 | Section Twelve | 17.41 | 15.85 | 1.29 | 5.49 |
MD (Mid) | 18003000 | Barbour | 20.65 | 16.46 | 1.30 | 4.72 |
MD (Nor) | 69033700 | Thumb | 21.05 | 16.76 | 1.28 | 3.35 |
MD (Nor) | 69048000 | Beartrack | 68.26 | 16.76 | 1.71 | 4.02 |
MD (Nor) | 38049100 | Vera | 99.19 | 16.76 | 1.88 | 5.26 |
MD (Mid) | 31021800 | Shamrock | 23.89 | 16.76 | 1.32 | 4.57 |
MD (Mid) | 11006900 | Bass | 86.23 | 16.76 | 1.82 | 5.33 |
MD (Nor) | 69021300 | Toe | 67.21 | 17.37 | 1.65 | 4.57 |
MD (Mid) | 31039900 | Little Wabana | 42.11 | 17.37 | 1.47 | 4.71 |
MD (Nor) | 38050200 | Ashigan | 76.52 | 17.98 | 1.64 | 7.62 |
MD (Mid) | 11048200 | May | 49.80 | 17.98 | 1.48 | 3.96 |
MD (Nor) | 31091100 | Hamrey | 17.81 | 18.29 | 1.12 | 4.27 |
MD (Nor) | 69076100 | Spring | 78.54 | 18.29 | 1.63 | 4.57 |
MD (Nor) | 69034800 | Finger | 116.19 | 18.29 | 1.80 | 3.96 |
MD (Mid) | 11046600 | Fifth | 18.46 | 18.29 | 1.13 | 4.95 |
MD (Mid) | 31077800 | Little Too Much | 27.13 | 18.29 | 1.25 | 4.27 |
MD (Mid) | 31046600 | Horseshoe | 51.42 | 18.29 | 1.46 | 4.27 |
MD (Mid) | 31037300 | Hale | 57.49 | 18.29 | 1.51 | 4.77 |
MD (Mid) | 31057500 | Little Bass | 62.75 | 18.90 | 1.49 | 4.77 |
MD (Mid) | 56082900 | Pebble | 68.42 | 18.90 | 1.52 | 4.31 |
MD (Mid) | 29023700 | Newman | 15.79 | 19.20 | 1.04 | 4.88 |
MD (Mid) | 18039600 | Edna | 61.94 | 19.20 | 1.46 | 4.75 |
MD (Mid) | 18036400 | Clear | 89.07 | 19.20 | 1.60 | 4.65 |
MD (Nor) | 69047300 | Eugene | 67.21 | 19.51 | 1.47 | 3.35 |
MD (Mid) | 18029800 | East Fox | 96.76 | 19.81 | 1.58 | 5.08 |
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Abbreviation | Description |
---|---|
T | Water temperature (°C) |
DO | Dissolved oxygen (mg/L) |
TDO3 | Water temperature where DO equals to 3 mg/L |
CGCM 3.1 | Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) of the earth’s atmosphere and oceans developed by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (version 3.1) |
MIROC 3.2 | The Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a CGCM developed by several Japanese agencies (version 3.2, see the Section 2.1) |
VB | 31-day variable benchmark period (may vary by lake and by year) when ATDO3 is the highest |
FB | 31-day fixed bench mark period |
ATDO3 | Average daily TDO3 over 31-day benchmark period in a simulation year |
ATDO3FB | Average daily TDO3 over the 31-day fixed benchmark period |
ATDO3VB | Average daily TDO3 over the 31-day variable benchmark period |
AvgATDO3 | Multiyear average of ATDO3 over a simulation period |
AvgATDO3FB | Multiyear average of ATDO3FB over a simulation period (e.g., 1961–2008) |
AvgATDO3VB | Multiyear average of ATDO3FB over a simulation period |
AS | Lake surface area (m2 or km2) |
Hmax | Lake maximum depth (m) |
GR | Lake geometry ratio = As0.25/Hmax (m−0.5) |
SD | Lake Secchi depth (m) |
NSE | Nash–Sutcliff model efficiency |
RMSE | Root-mean-square errors |
DOY | Julian day, day of year |
T1 | Tier 1 refuge lakes (AvgATDO3 < 11 °C) |
T2 | Tier 2 refuge lakes (11 °C ≤ AvgATDO3 ≤ 17 °C) |
T3 | Tier 3 non-refuge lakes (AvgATDO3 > 17 °C) |
Northern cisco lakes | Cisco lakes by latitude near International Falls weather station (Figure 2) |
Mid-latitude cisco lakes | Cisco lakes by latitude near Duluth weather station (Figure 2) |
Southern cisco lakes | Cisco lakes by latitude near St. Cloud weather station (Figure 2) |
Shallow virtual lakes | 12 lakes with maximum depth equal to 4 m [11] |
Medium-depth virtual lakes | 16 lakes with maximum depth equal to 13 m [11] |
Medium-deep virtual lakes | 24 lakes with maximum depth equal to 18 m (Table 2) |
Deep virtual lakes | 30 lakes with maximum depth equal to 24 m [10] |
82 virtual lakes | 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, 24 medium-deep, and 30 deep virtual lakes |
Surface Area AS (km2) | Secchi Depth SD (m) | Geometry Ratio GR = As0.25/Hmax (m−0.5) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.2 1 | 2.5 2 | 4.5 3 | 7.0 3 | ||
0.1 | LakeM01 | LakeM02 | LakeM03 | LakeM04 | 0.99 |
0.5 | LakeM06 | LakeM07 | LakeM08 | LakeM09 | 1.48 |
1.5 | LakeM11 | LakeM12 | LakeM13 | LakeM14 | 1.94 |
5.0 | LakeM16 | LakeM17 | LakeM18 | LakeM19 | 2.63 |
13.0 | LakeM21 | LakeM22 | LakeM23 | LakeM24 | 3.34 |
50.0 | LakeM26 | LakeM27 | LakeM28 | LakeM29 | 4.67 |
Shallow Cisco Lakes | Medium-Depth Cisco Lakes | Medium-Deep Cisco Lakes | Deep Cisco Lakes | Total Cisco Lakes | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
International Falls | 5 | 59 | 38 | 64 | 166 |
Duluth | 9 | 168 | 90 | 132 | 399 |
St. Cloud | 0 | 18 | 12 | 25 | 55 |
Total | 14 | 245 | 140 | 221 | 620 |
12 Shallow Virtual Lakes | International Falls (Northern) | Duluth (Mid-Latitude) | St. Cloud (Southern) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAST | CGCM | MIROC | PAST | CGCM | MIROC | PAST | CGCM | MIROC | |
Maximum | 22.74 | 25.70 | 25.75 | 22.00 | 24.70 | 25.35 | 24.98 | 27.38 | 27.91 |
Minimum | 21.40 | 24.28 | 24.21 | 20.69 | 23.56 | 24.33 | 23.81 | 26.17 | 26.18 |
Mean | 22.34 | 25.29 | 25.32 | 21.65 | 24.41 | 25.05 | 24.59 | 27.03 | 27.45 |
STDEV 1 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.43 | 0.65 |
16 Medium-Depth Virtual Lakes | |||||||||
Maximum | 21.41 | 24.36 | 24.49 | 20.92 | 23.66 | 24.27 | 23.65 | 26.17 | 26.71 |
Minimum | 20.07 | 23.22 | 23.52 | 19.26 | 22.33 | 23.09 | 22.48 | 25.18 | 25.83 |
Mean | 20.55 | 23.70 | 23.88 | 19.86 | 22.82 | 23.54 | 22.92 | 25.58 | 26.23 |
STDEV | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
International Falls (Northern) | Duluth (Mid-Latitude) | St. Cloud (Southern) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAST | CGCM | MIROC | PAST | CGCM | MIROC | PAST | CGCM | MIROC | |
Maximum | 21.34 | 24.26 | 24.40 | 20.85 | 23.57 | 24.19 | 23.53 | 26.09 | 26.72 |
Minimum | 12.75 | 13.98 | 14.44 | 12.19 | 13.07 | 14.03 | 13.92 | 14.52 | 15.64 |
Mean | 18.56 | 21.53 | 22.01 | 18.07 | 21.12 | 21.81 | 20.96 | 23.79 | 24.48 |
STDEV | 2.20 | 2.65 | 2.44 | 2.14 | 2.38 | 2.36 | 2.37 | 2.65 | 2.53 |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lake Name (Hmax, GR) 1 | Mortality Date in 2006 | AvgATDO3VB 4 | Range 6 | ATDO3VB (2006) | VB (2006) | Mean TDO3 in 3, 7, 15 Days 7 |
Cotton (8.5, 6.07) | 205 (24 July) | 22.2 ± 1.3 | 19.4–25.1 | 25.1 | 195–225 | 25.0, 24.9, 24.3 |
Little Turtle (8.8, 4.21) | 200 (19 July) | 21.8 ± 1.6 | 18.7–25.0 | 25.0 | 192–222 | 24.4, 24.0, 23.2 |
8th Crow Wing (9.1, 4.11) | 216 (04 August) | 21.8 ± 1.3 | 19.1–24.6 | 24.6 | 196–226 | 25.8, 25.6, 25.1 |
Little Pine 2 (11.1, 2.9) | 214 (02 August) | 21.6 ± 1.5 | 19.1–24.6 | 24.6 | 195–225 | 26.2, 26.1, 25.2 |
Itasca (12.2, 3.32) | 209 (28 July) | 21.3 ± 1.3 | 18.6–24.3 | 24.3 | 195–225 | 24.7, 24.3, 24.0 |
7th Crow Wing (12.8, 2.49) | 216 (04 August) | 20.3 ± 1.4 | 18.0–22.5 | 22.5 | 187–217 | 23.7, 23.9, 23.6 |
Leech (13.0, 10.91) | 211 (30 July) | 21.1 ± 1.4 | 18.2–23.9 | 23.9 | 189–219 | 25.2, 24.6, 24.2 |
Mille Lacs (13.0, 11.89) | 204 (23 July) | 22.1 ± 1.1 | 19.6–24.2 | 24.2 | 216–246 | 21.9, 21.7, 21.1 |
Woman (16.5, 4.02) | 210 (29 July) | 21.7 ± 1.5 | 18.5–25.1 | 25.1 | 195–225 | 26.1, 25.6, 24.8 |
Andrusia (18.3, 2.75) | 202 (21 July) | 21.3 ± 1.3 | 18.9–24.2 | 24.2 | 198–228 | 23.5, 23.1, 22.5 |
Straight (19.2, 1.94) | 213 (01 August) | 16.2 ± 1.5 | 13.7–21.1 | 21.1 | 198–228 | 19.0, 18.3, 17.1 |
Little Pine 3 (19.2, 2.77) | 203 (22 July) | 19.8 ± 1.2 5 | 17.1–22.1 | 21.8 | 194–224 | 21.7, 21.3, 20.2 |
Bemidji (23.2, 3.13) | 208 (27 July) | 19.3 ± 1.0 | 17.8–21.4 | 21.4 | 204–234 | 21.3, 21.0, 20.3 |
Gull (24.4, 3.26) | 210 (29 July) | 19.9 ± 1.2 | 18.0–22.5 | 22.5 | 205–235 | 22.5, 22.2, 21.5 |
Pine Mountain (24.4, 2.11) | 207 (26 July) | 21.8 ± 1.3 | 19.6–24.3 | 24.2 | 195–225 | 24.5, 23.9, 23.3 |
Star (28.7, 2.26) | 200 (19 July) | 20.0 ± 1.1 5 | 17.6–22.4 | 22.4 | 197–227 | 21.6, 21.0, 20.4 |
Long (39, 1.22) | 218 (06 August) | 18.8 ± 1.3 5 | 16.6–21.7 | 21.1 | 203–233 | 21.9, 21.9, 21.5 |
Carlos (49.7, 1.15) | 239 (27 August) | 13.4 ± 1.1 5 | 11.2–15.7 | 15.4 | 240–270 | 13.8, 13.4, 12.5 |
Region (Weather Station) | Lake Categories | Past | MIROC 3.2 | CGCM 3.1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | T2 | T3 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T1 | T2 | T3 | ||
Northern Cisco Lakes (near International Falls) | Shallow | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Medium-depth | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 59 | |
Medium-deep | 0 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 37 | |
Deep | 37 | 25 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 18 | |
Total | 37 | 30 | 99 | 18 | 28 | 120 | 23 | 24 | 119 | |
Mid-latitude Cisco Lakes (near Duluth) | Shallow | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Medium-depth | 0 | 0 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 168 | 0 | 0 | 168 | |
Medium-deep | 0 | 25 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 3 | 87 | |
Deep | 41 | 91 | 0 | 10 | 60 | 62 | 10 | 59 | 63 | |
Total | 41 | 116 | 242 | 10 | 60 | 329 | 10 | 62 | 327 | |
Southern Cisco Lakes (near St. Cloud) | Shallow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Medium-depth | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | |
Medium-deep | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
Deep | 1 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 21 | |
Total | 1 | 20 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 51 | |
All Three Regions | Total | 79 | 166 | 375 | 28 | 92 | 500 | 33 | 90 | 497 |
Region (Weather Station) | Lake Categories | Past | MIROC 3.2 | CGCM 3.1 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T1 | T2 | T3 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T1 | T2 | T3 | ||
Northern Cisco Lakes (near International Falls) | Shallow | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Medium-depth | 1 | 36 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 8 | 51 | |
Medium-deep | 3 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 12 | 25 | |
Deep | 37 | 25 | 2 | 18 | 27 | 19 | 23 | 23 | 18 | |
Total | 41 | 96 | 29 | 19 | 43 | 104 | 24 | 43 | 99 | |
Mid-latitude Cisco Lakes (near Duluth) | Shallow | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Medium-depth | 3 | 113 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 160 | 0 | 8 | 160 | |
Medium-deep | 8 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 74 | 0 | 16 | 74 | |
Deep | 41 | 91 | 0 | 10 | 60 | 62 | 10 | 59 | 63 | |
Total | 52 | 285 | 62 | 10 | 84 | 305 | 10 | 83 | 306 | |
Southern Cisco Lakes (near St. Cloud) | Shallow | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Medium-depth | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 18 | |
Medium-deep | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |
Deep | 1 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 21 | |
Total | 1 | 31 | 23 | 0 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 51 | |
All Three Regions | Total | 94 | 412 | 114 | 29 | 131 | 460 | 34 | 130 | 456 |
Climate Scenarios | Method | Tier 1 Refuge Lakes | Tier 2 Refuge Lakes | Total Refuge Lakes | Tier 3 Non-Refuge Lakes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Past | previous 1 | 94 (15.2%) | 412 (66.5%) | 506 (81.6%) | 114 (18.4%) |
current | 79 (12.7%) | 166 (26.8%) | 245 (39.5%) | 375 (60.5%) | |
CGCM 3.1 | previous | 34 (5.5%) | 130 (21.0%) | 164 (26.5%) | 456 (73.6%) |
current | 33 (5.3%) | 90 (14.5%) | 123 (19.8%) | 497 (80.2%) | |
MIROC 3.2 | previous | 29 (4.7%) | 131 (21.1%) | 160 (25.8%) | 460 (74.2%) |
current | 28 (4.5%) | 92 (14.8%) | 120 (19.4%) | 500 (80.7%) |
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Jiang, L.; Fang, X.; Chen, G. Refuge Lake Reclassification in 620 Minnesota Cisco Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios. Water 2017, 9, 675. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090675
Jiang L, Fang X, Chen G. Refuge Lake Reclassification in 620 Minnesota Cisco Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios. Water. 2017; 9(9):675. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090675
Chicago/Turabian StyleJiang, Liping, Xing Fang, and Gang Chen. 2017. "Refuge Lake Reclassification in 620 Minnesota Cisco Lakes under Future Climate Scenarios" Water 9, no. 9: 675. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9090675