Research on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of the Lower Yellow River Based on System Dynamics
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Overview of the Study Area and Research Methods
2.1. Overview of the Study Area
2.2. Research Methods
2.2.1. WEE Indicator System Construction
2.2.2. Modified AHP—CRITIC Combined Weighting Method
2.2.3. Coupled Coordination Evaluation Method
2.2.4. System Dynamics
- (1)
- Determining the system boundary of the study area, and defining the base year for the study and the simulation time.
- (2)
- Outlining the subsystems of the WEE coupled system, identifying the causal relationships among the variables, subsystems, and their associated equation groups.
- (3)
- Utilizing the Vensim-PLE 9.3.5 software to create a flow diagram of the WEE coupled system, based on the defined subsystems, and establishing the system dynamics model.
- (4)
- Conducting a simulation analysis according to the established system dynamics model, verifying the simulation accuracy with reference year variables, and determining parameter rates based on the verification results.
- (5)
- Short-term simulation predictions of coupled WEE systems under different development scenarios using the debugged system dynamics model.
2.3. Data Source
3. Result and Analysis
3.1. Coupled Coordination Analysis and Evaluation
- a.
- Water resources–economy coupling coordination analysis
- b.
- Water resources–environmental coupling coordination analysis
- c.
- Coupled economy–environmental coordination analysis
- d.
- Water resources–economy–environmental coupling coordination degree analysis
3.2. Coupling Coordination Prediction
- a.
- Flowchart creation
- b.
- Model accuracy verification
- c.
- Scenario assumptions and projections
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Serial Number | System | Tier 1 Indicators | Tier 2 Indicators | Indicator Calculation | Unit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Water | Water supply capacity | Average annual rainfall | Multi-year rainfall/year | mm |
2 | Water resources per capita | Total water resources/total population | m3/person | ||
3 | Number of water production systems | Total water resources/total annual rainfall | - | ||
4 | Modulus of water supply | Water supply/land area | 106 m3/km2 | ||
5 | Water resources modulus | Total water resources/land area | 106 m3/km2 | ||
6 | Comprehensive production capacity of urban public water supply | Statistics | million m3/d | ||
7 | Water consumption | Total water consumption | Total annual water consumption | m3 | |
8 | Water resources development and utilization | Water consumption/total water resources | % | ||
9 | Water demand per capita | Water requirement/total population | m3/person | ||
10 | Water consumption of CNY 10,000 GDP | Water consumption/GDP | m3/million | ||
11 | Economy | Population development | Natural population growth rate | Birth rate-death rate | ‰ |
12 | Economic development | GDP per capita | GDP/total population | yuan/person | |
13 | GDP growth rate | (Current GDP-base year GDP)/base year GDP | % | ||
14 | Proportion of primary production | Ratio of primary industry output to GDP | % | ||
15 | Proportion of secondary production | Ratio of secondary industry output to GDP | % | ||
16 | Ratio of tertiary production | Ratio of tertiary sector output to GDP | % | ||
17 | General budget revenue | Statistics | Billion | ||
18 | Social development | City municipal utilities construction Fixed asset investment completion | Statistics | Billion | |
19 | Total retail sales of social consumer goods | Statistics | 1010 yuan | ||
20 | Balance of deposits in financial institutions at the end of the year | Statistics | 1010 yuan | ||
21 | Urbanization rate | Urban population/total population | % | ||
22 | Environment | Atmospheric environment | PM2.5 | Statistics | µg/m3 |
23 | Carbon dioxide emissions | Total gas supply, total electricity consumption, and total heat supply are summed by multiplying the carbon emission factors | million tons | ||
24 | Water environment | Wastewater discharge | Statistics | million m3 | |
25 | Sulfur dioxide emissions | Statistics | tons/year | ||
26 | Ecological environment | Ecological water use rate | Ecological water consumption/total water consumption | % | |
27 | Ecological attention | Government documents word frequency search | times | ||
28 | Social environment | Greening coverage of built-up areas | Greening coverage area/total area | % | |
29 | Harmless disposal rate of domestic waste | Amount of harmless disposal of domestic waste/total domestic waste | % | ||
30 | Sewage treatment rate | Wastewater treatment capacity/total sewage discharge | % |
Degree of Coupling Category | Degree of Coupling Descriptor | Degree of Coupling Coordination Category | Type of Coupling Coordination |
---|---|---|---|
[0.0–0.3] | Low-level coupling | [0.0–0.1] | Extremely dysfunctional recession |
(0.1–0.2] | Severe dysregulation recession | ||
(0.3–0.5] | Low-level coupling | (0.2–0.3] | Moderate dysregulation recession |
(0.3–0.4] | Mild dysregulation recession | ||
(0.5–0.8] | Breaking-in coupling Breaking-in coupling | (0.4–0.5] | On the verge of dysfunctional recession |
(0.5–0.6] | Barely coordinated development | ||
(0.6–0.7] | Primary coordination development | ||
(0.8–1.0] | High-level coupling | (0.7–0.8] | Intermediate coordination development |
(0.8–0.9] | Good coordination development | ||
(0.9–1.0] | High-quality coordinated development |
Year | Total Water Consumption (Billion m3) | Water Resources per Capita (m3) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual Value | Simulated Value | Relative Error % | Actual Value | Simulated Value | Relative Error % | |
2013 | 214.71 | 216.51 | 0.84 | 230.17 | 229.27 | −0.39 |
2014 | 206.84 | 211.62 | 2.31 | 134.95 | 133.87 | −0.80 |
2015 | 208.10 | 212.45 | 2.09 | 170.27 | 168.11 | −1.27 |
2016 | 210.37 | 215.58 | 2.48 | 218.90 | 214.71 | −1.91 |
2017 | 212.32 | 218.12 | 2.73 | 159.04 | 155.21 | −2.41 |
2018 | 217.51 | 223.7 | 2.85 | 252.46 | 245 | −2.95 |
2019 | 234.48 | 237.24 | 1.18 | 147.26 | 143.83 | −2.33 |
2020 | 225.19 | 229.68 | 1.99 | 225.59 | 226.3 | 0.31 |
Year | GDP per Capita (CNY) | Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods (1010 CNY) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual Value | Simulated Value | Relative Error % | Actual Value | Simulated Value | Relative Error % | |
2013 | 50,302.95 | 50,103.7 | −0.40 | 11.60 | 12.075 | 4.07 |
2014 | 53,820.22 | 53,389.1 | −0.80 | 13.11 | 13.27 | 1.20 |
2015 | 56,202.34 | 55,482.8 | −1.28 | 14.70 | 14.465 | −1.57 |
2016 | 59,807.59 | 58,660.9 | −1.92 | 16.17 | 15.66 | −3.15 |
2017 | 64,860.85 | 63,300.8 | −2.41 | 17.88 | 16.855 | −5.75 |
2018 | 69,649.26 | 67,589.1 | −2.96 | 18.32 | 18.05 | −1.48 |
2019 | 65,662.32 | 64,134.4 | −2.33 | 19.45 | 19.245 | −1.03 |
2020 | 65,529.73 | 65,528.9 | 0.00 | 20.57 | 20.43 | −0.70 |
Year | Ecological Attention (Times) | Wastewater Discharge (Million m3) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Actual Value | Simulated Value | Relative Error % | Actual Value | Simulated Value | Relative Error % | |
2013 | 64,578.00 | 72,866.3 | 12.83 | 25,590.26 | 26,387.944 | 3.12 |
2014 | 68,540.00 | 73,443.6 | 7.15 | 26,979.38 | 27,412.683 | 1.61 |
2015 | 67,630.00 | 74,020.9 | 9.45 | 29,282.15 | 28,048.6 | −4.21 |
2016 | 77,231.00 | 74,598.2 | −3.41 | 26,245.46 | 28,205.257 | 7.47 |
2017 | 75,641.00 | 75,175.5 | −0.62 | 27,654.38 | 27,792.216 | 0.50 |
2018 | 74,721.00 | 75,752.8 | 1.38 | 28,460.92 | 26,719.039 | −6.12 |
2019 | 82,181.00 | 76,330.1 | −7.12 | 25,289.31 | 24,895.288 | −1.56 |
2020 | 80,556.00 | 76,907.4 | −4.53 | 21,410.23 | 22,230.525 | 3.83 |
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Wang, A.; Wang, S.; Liang, S.; Yang, R.; Yang, M.; Yang, J. Research on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of the Lower Yellow River Based on System Dynamics. Water 2023, 15, 3046. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173046
Wang A, Wang S, Liang S, Yang R, Yang M, Yang J. Research on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of the Lower Yellow River Based on System Dynamics. Water. 2023; 15(17):3046. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173046
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Aili, Shunsheng Wang, Shuaitao Liang, Ruijie Yang, Mingwei Yang, and Jinyue Yang. 2023. "Research on Ecological Protection and High-Quality Development of the Lower Yellow River Based on System Dynamics" Water 15, no. 17: 3046. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15173046