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Article

Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain

1
School of Water Conservation, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450045, China
2
Department of Geology & Geophysics, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
3
Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA
4
Metropolitan Solar Inc., Washington, DC 20032, USA
5
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Yaoming Ma and Pavel Groisman
Water 2022, 14(18), 2888; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182888
Received: 21 June 2022 / Revised: 21 August 2022 / Accepted: 12 September 2022 / Published: 16 September 2022
Accurate short-term forecasts of daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are essential for real-time irrigation scheduling. Many models rely on current and historical temperature data to estimate daily ET0. However, easily accessible temperature forecasts are relatively less reported in short-term ET0 forecasting. Furthermore, the accuracy of ET0 forecasting from different models varies locally and also across regions. We used five temperature-dependent models to forecast daily ET0 for a 7-day horizon in the North China Plain (NCP): the McCloud (MC), Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Thornthwaite (TH), and reduced-set Penman–Monteith (RPM) models. Daily meteorological data collected between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014 at 17 weather stations in NCP to calibrate and validate the five ET0 models against the ASCE Penman–Monteith (ASCE-PM). Forecast temperatures for up to 7 d ahead for 1 January 2015–19 June 2021 were input to the five calibrated models to forecast ET0. The performance of the five models improved for forecasts at all stations after calibration. The calibrated RPM is the preferred choice for forecasting ET0 in NCP. In descending order of preference, the remaining models were ranked as HS, TH, BC, and MC. Sensitivity analysis showed that a change in maximum temperature influenced the accuracy of ET0 forecasting by the five models, especially RPM, HS, and TH, more than other variables. Meanwhile, the calibrated RPM and HS equations were better than the other models, and thus, these two equations were recommended for short-term ET0 forecasting in NCP. View Full-Text
Keywords: reference evapotranspiration forecasting; temperature forecasts; temperature-based models; Penman-Monteith; North China Plain reference evapotranspiration forecasting; temperature forecasts; temperature-based models; Penman-Monteith; North China Plain
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MDPI and ACS Style

Zhang, L.; Zhao, X.; Ge, J.; Zhang, J.; Traore, S.; Fipps, G.; Luo, Y. Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain. Water 2022, 14, 2888. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182888

AMA Style

Zhang L, Zhao X, Ge J, Zhang J, Traore S, Fipps G, Luo Y. Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain. Water. 2022; 14(18):2888. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182888

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhang, Lei, Xin Zhao, Jiankun Ge, Jiaqi Zhang, Seydou Traore, Guy Fipps, and Yufeng Luo. 2022. "Evaluation of Five Equations for Short-Term Reference Evapotranspiration Forecasting Using Public Temperature Forecasts for North China Plain" Water 14, no. 18: 2888. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182888

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