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Article

Risk Propagation Evolution Analysis of Oil and Gas Leakage in FPSO Oil and Gas Processing System by Mapping Bow-Tie into Directed Weighted Complex Network

1
College of Shipbuilding Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
2
College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China
3
Navigation College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Chin H Wu
Water 2022, 14(18), 2857; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182857
Received: 14 July 2022 / Revised: 28 August 2022 / Accepted: 8 September 2022 / Published: 13 September 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Reliability and Safety in Ocean and Coastal Engineering)
An innovative methodology is proposed to identify potential risk factors and possible accident escalation consequences, and to determine the evolution of an accident from cause to consequence, thereby to identify the most probable path and discover key risk factors along the path rapidly. Based on the principle of a directed weighted complex network (DWCN), the bow-tie (BT) model, risk entropy and the improved ant colony optimization (IACO) algorithm are integrated into this methodology. First, the qualitative analysis of risk evolution based on the BT model is carried out. The evolution development based on accident suppression can be divided into two stages: accident precursor stage and accident evolution stage. Then, a new method for mapping BT into DWCN is proposed. Lastly, the shortest path analysis of risk evolution based on the IACO algorithm is carried out, fuzzy set theory (FST) is introduced to calculate the failure probability of risk factors, and risk entropy is used to represent the uncertainty of risk propagation. Thus, the IACO algorithm can be used to calculate the shortest path of risk evolution. The proposed method is applied to oil and gas leakages in the FPSO oil and gas processing system. The results show that it is an effective method to identify the shortest evolution path and the most vulnerable risk factors. View Full-Text
Keywords: risk analysis; FPSO oil and gas processing system; risk evolution path; directed weighted complex network (DWCN); improved ant colony optimization (IACO) algorithm risk analysis; FPSO oil and gas processing system; risk evolution path; directed weighted complex network (DWCN); improved ant colony optimization (IACO) algorithm
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MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, L.; Sun, L.; Sun, H.; Meng, X.; Kang, J. Risk Propagation Evolution Analysis of Oil and Gas Leakage in FPSO Oil and Gas Processing System by Mapping Bow-Tie into Directed Weighted Complex Network. Water 2022, 14, 2857. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182857

AMA Style

Wang L, Sun L, Sun H, Meng X, Kang J. Risk Propagation Evolution Analysis of Oil and Gas Leakage in FPSO Oil and Gas Processing System by Mapping Bow-Tie into Directed Weighted Complex Network. Water. 2022; 14(18):2857. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182857

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Longting, Liping Sun, Hai Sun, Xiangkun Meng, and Jichuan Kang. 2022. "Risk Propagation Evolution Analysis of Oil and Gas Leakage in FPSO Oil and Gas Processing System by Mapping Bow-Tie into Directed Weighted Complex Network" Water 14, no. 18: 2857. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182857

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