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Article

How Robust Is a Multi-Model Ensemble Mean of Conceptual Hydrological Models to Climate Change?

1
Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1, Hongo Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
2
Institute of Engineering Innovation, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 2-11-16 Yayoi, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Yonas K. Demissie
Water 2022, 14(18), 2852; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182852
Received: 22 July 2022 / Revised: 30 August 2022 / Accepted: 7 September 2022 / Published: 13 September 2022
It is a grand challenge to realize robust rainfall-runoff prediction for a changing climate through conceptual hydrological models. Although multi-model ensemble (MME) is considered useful in improving the robustness of hydrological prediction, it has yet to be thoroughly evaluated. We evaluated the robustness of MME by 44 conceptual hydrological models in 582 river basins. We found that MME was more accurate and robust than each individual model alone. Although the performance of MME degrades in the validation period, the extent of degradation is smaller for MME than for individual models, especially when the climatology of river discharge in the validation period is greatly different from that in the calibration period. This implies the robustness of MME to climate change. It was found to be difficult to quantify the robustness of MME when the number of basins and models is small, which implies the importance of the large number of models and watersheds to evaluate the robustness and uncertainty in hydrological prediction. View Full-Text
Keywords: MARRMoT; rainfall-runoff analysis; robustness; multi-model ensemble; conceptual hydrological models; climate change MARRMoT; rainfall-runoff analysis; robustness; multi-model ensemble; conceptual hydrological models; climate change
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kimizuka, T.; Sawada, Y. How Robust Is a Multi-Model Ensemble Mean of Conceptual Hydrological Models to Climate Change? Water 2022, 14, 2852. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182852

AMA Style

Kimizuka T, Sawada Y. How Robust Is a Multi-Model Ensemble Mean of Conceptual Hydrological Models to Climate Change? Water. 2022; 14(18):2852. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182852

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kimizuka, Takayuki, and Yohei Sawada. 2022. "How Robust Is a Multi-Model Ensemble Mean of Conceptual Hydrological Models to Climate Change?" Water 14, no. 18: 2852. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14182852

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