Identifying Thresholds, Regime Shifts, and Early Warning Signals Using Long-Term Streamflow Data in the Transboundary Rio Grande–Rio Bravo Basin
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Case Study
2.2. The Anthropocene of the Rio Grande-Bravo
2.3. Methodology Overview
2.3.1. Streamflow Data Collection
2.3.2. Streamflow Naturalization
2.3.3. Streamflow Standardization
2.3.4. Regime Shift Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Streamflow Naturalization Validation
3.2. Regime Shifts of the Natural and Regulated Systems
3.2.1. Natural System
3.2.2. Regulated System
3.2.3. Sustainable Regime Hypothesis Evaluation
4. Discussion
4.1. Occurrence of Regime Shifts
4.1.1. Abrupt Regime Shifts
4.1.2. Resilience Safeguards: A Buffer to Regime Shifts
4.1.3. Cascading Regime Shifts
4.2. Early Warning Signs for Regime Shifts
4.2.1. Critical Slowing Down
4.2.2. Flickering
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Goodness of Fit Criteria | Orive-Alba | Loredo-Rasgado | Blythe and Schmidt |
---|---|---|---|
1900–1943 | 1900–1944 | 1900–2010 | |
Pearson’s Correlation | 0.990 | 0.995 | 0.996 |
Coefficient of Determination (R2) | 0.995 | 0.998 | 0.998 |
Index of Agreement (Willmott-d) | 0.995 | 0.995 | 0.995 |
Coefficient of Efficiency (Nash-NSE) | 0.979 | 0.979 | 0.979 |
Percent bias (PBIAS) | 3.589 | 7.131 | 1.881 |
Sustainable Regime Null Hypothesis | Control Gauge Station | Naturalized Streamflow System | Regulated Streamflow System |
---|---|---|---|
A system is considered in an orderly dynamic regime when a nonzero FI remains nearly constant over time (i.e., d⟨FI⟩/dt ≈ 0). | Rio Conchos Pecos River Rio Salado Rio San Juan San Marcial El Paso Above Amistad Anzalduas | Accept | Accept |
A steady decrease 1 in FI indicates that the system is losing its order, functionality, stability, and the patterns are breaking down. This declining trend may provide warning of an imminent regime shift. | Rio Conchos Pecos River Rio Salado Rio San Juan San Marcial El Paso Above Amistad Anzalduas | Accept Reject Accept Accept No trend No trend Accept Accept | Reject |
A steady increase 1 in FI indicates that the system is becoming more stable and organized. | Rio Conchos Pecos River Rio Salado Rio San Juan San Marcial El Paso Above Amistad Anzalduas | Reject Accept Reject Reject No trend No trend Reject Reject | Accept |
A sharp decrease or increase in FI indicates a regime shift | Rio Conchos Pecos River Rio Salado Rio San Juan San Marcial El Paso Above Amistad Anzalduas | Reject | Accept Accept Reject Accept Accept Accept Accept Reject |
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Garza-Díaz, L.E.; Sandoval-Solis, S. Identifying Thresholds, Regime Shifts, and Early Warning Signals Using Long-Term Streamflow Data in the Transboundary Rio Grande–Rio Bravo Basin. Water 2022, 14, 2555. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162555
Garza-Díaz LE, Sandoval-Solis S. Identifying Thresholds, Regime Shifts, and Early Warning Signals Using Long-Term Streamflow Data in the Transboundary Rio Grande–Rio Bravo Basin. Water. 2022; 14(16):2555. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162555
Chicago/Turabian StyleGarza-Díaz, Laura E., and Samuel Sandoval-Solis. 2022. "Identifying Thresholds, Regime Shifts, and Early Warning Signals Using Long-Term Streamflow Data in the Transboundary Rio Grande–Rio Bravo Basin" Water 14, no. 16: 2555. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14162555