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Article

Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sinai, Egypt Using Hydromorphic Data, Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression

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Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia 61111, Egypt
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Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering, Shaqra University, Dawadmi 11911, Ar Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
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Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, South Valley University, Qena 83523, Egypt
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Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Luis Garrote
Water 2022, 14(15), 2434; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14152434
Received: 11 June 2022 / Revised: 24 July 2022 / Accepted: 1 August 2022 / Published: 6 August 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flash Floods: Forecasting, Monitoring and Mitigation Strategies)
Flash floods in the Sinai often cause significant damage to infrastructure and even loss of life. In this study, the susceptibility to flash flooding is determined using hydro-morphometric characteristics of the catchments. Basins and their hydro-morphometric features are derived from a digital elevation model from NASA Earthdata. Principal component analysis is used to identify principal components with a clear physical meaning that explains most of the variation in the data. The probability of flash flooding is estimated by logistic regression using the principal components as predictors and by fitting the model to flash flood observations. The model prediction results are cross validated. The logistic model is used to classify Sinai basins into four classes: low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility to flash flooding. The map indicating the susceptibility to flash flooding in Sinai shows that the large basins in the mountain ranges of the southern Sinai have a very high susceptibility for flash flooding, several basins in the southwest Sinai have a high or moderate susceptibility to flash flooding, some sub-basins of wadi El-Arish in the center have a high susceptibility to flash flooding, while smaller to medium-sized basins in flatter areas in the center and north usually have a moderate or low susceptibility to flash flooding. These results are consistent with observations of flash floods that occurred in different regions of the Sinai and with the findings or predictions of other studies. View Full-Text
Keywords: flash flood; flood hazard; morphometry; PCA; logistic regression; Sinai; Egypt flash flood; flood hazard; morphometry; PCA; logistic regression; Sinai; Egypt
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MDPI and ACS Style

El-Rawy, M.; Elsadek, W.M.; De Smedt, F. Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sinai, Egypt Using Hydromorphic Data, Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression. Water 2022, 14, 2434. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14152434

AMA Style

El-Rawy M, Elsadek WM, De Smedt F. Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sinai, Egypt Using Hydromorphic Data, Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression. Water. 2022; 14(15):2434. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14152434

Chicago/Turabian Style

El-Rawy, Mustafa, Wael M. Elsadek, and Florimond De Smedt. 2022. "Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping in Sinai, Egypt Using Hydromorphic Data, Principal Component Analysis and Logistic Regression" Water 14, no. 15: 2434. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14152434

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