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Article

Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China

1
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
2
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(7), 1888; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071888
Received: 28 May 2020 / Revised: 21 June 2020 / Accepted: 29 June 2020 / Published: 1 July 2020
The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively. View Full-Text
Keywords: hydrological drought risk; coupla functions; standardized runoff index; run theory hydrological drought risk; coupla functions; standardized runoff index; run theory
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MDPI and ACS Style

Xiang, Y.; Wang, Y.; Chen, Y.; Bai, Y.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Q. Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China. Water 2020, 12, 1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071888

AMA Style

Xiang Y, Wang Y, Chen Y, Bai Y, Zhang L, Zhang Q. Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China. Water. 2020; 12(7):1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071888

Chicago/Turabian Style

Xiang, Yanyun, Yi Wang, Yaning Chen, Yifei Bai, Leyuan Zhang, and Qifei Zhang. 2020. "Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Using a Multidimensional Copula Function Approach in Arid Inland Basins, China" Water 12, no. 7: 1888. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071888

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