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Open AccessArticle

High-Resolution, Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on a Semi-Arid Urban Watershed in Niamey, Niger

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Graduate Research Program on Climate Change and Water Resources, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Université D’Abomey Calavi, Cotonou 03 BP 526, Benin
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Départment de Géologie, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université Abdou Moumouni de Niamey, BP 10 662, Niamey 8000, Niger
3
National Water Institute, University of Abomey Calavi, Cotonou 03 BP 526, Benin
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Aquanty Inc., 564 Weber Street North, Waterloo, ON N2L 5C6, Canada
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Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 4C6, Canada
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Department of Physics, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON M5J 2S7, Canada
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AGRHYMET Regional Center, Niamey 8000, Niger
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Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Kingston, ON K7L 3R2, Canada
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Applied Science and Technology, North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University, Greensboro, NC 27411, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(2), 364; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020364
Received: 23 December 2019 / Revised: 17 January 2020 / Accepted: 19 January 2020 / Published: 29 January 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
This study evaluates the impact of climate change on water resources in a large, semi-arid urban watershed located in the Niamey Republic of Niger, West Africa. The watershed was modeled using the fully integrated surface–subsurface HydroGeoSphere model at a high spatial resolution. Historical (1980–2005) and projected (2020–2050) climate scenarios, derived from the outputs of three regional climate models (RCMs) under the regional climate projection (RCP) 4.5 scenario, were statistically downscaled using the multiscale quantile mapping bias correction method. Results show that the bias correction method is optimum at daily and monthly scales, and increased RCM resolution does not improve the performance of the model. The three RCMs predicted increases of up to 1.6% in annual rainfall and of 1.58 °C for mean annual temperatures between the historical and projected periods. The durations of the minimum environmental flow (MEF) conditions, required to supply drinking and agricultural water, were found to be sensitive to changes in runoff resulting from climate change. MEF occurrences and durations are likely to be greater from 2020–2030, and then they will be reduced for the 2030–2050 statistical periods. All three RCMs consistently project a rise in groundwater table of more than 10 m in topographically high zones, where the groundwater table is deep, and an increase of 2 m in the shallow groundwater table. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; integrated hydrological model; semi-arid; impacts climate change; integrated hydrological model; semi-arid; impacts
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Boko, B.A.; Konaté, M.; Yalo, N.; Berg, S.J.; Erler, A.R.; Bazié, P.; Hwang, H.-T.; Seidou, O.; Niandou, A.S.; Schimmel, K.; Sudicky, E.A. High-Resolution, Integrated Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on a Semi-Arid Urban Watershed in Niamey, Niger. Water 2020, 12, 364.

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