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Article

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

1
Department of Geosciences, Baylor University, Waco, TX 76706, USA
2
Computational Earth Science Group, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545, USA
3
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Baylor University, Waco, TX 76706, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(12), 3428; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123428
Received: 29 September 2020 / Revised: 2 December 2020 / Accepted: 2 December 2020 / Published: 6 December 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations. View Full-Text
Keywords: parameter estimation; uncertainty analysis; forecasting; numerical modeling; Monte Carlo simulation; observation worth parameter estimation; uncertainty analysis; forecasting; numerical modeling; Monte Carlo simulation; observation worth
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ahmmed, B.; James, S.C.; Yelderman, J. Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant. Water 2020, 12, 3428. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123428

AMA Style

Ahmmed B, James SC, Yelderman J. Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant. Water. 2020; 12(12):3428. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123428

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ahmmed, Bulbul; James, Scott C.; Yelderman, Joe. 2020. "Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant" Water 12, no. 12: 3428. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123428

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