Next Article in Journal
Evaluation of TMPA Satellite Precipitation in Driving VIC Hydrological Model over the Upper Yangtze River Basin
Previous Article in Journal
A New Approach to Calculate the Water Exploitation Index (WEI+)
Open AccessArticle

Return Level Analysis of the Hanumante River Using Structured Expert Judgment: A Reconstruction of Historical Water Levels

1
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands
2
Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics (DIAM), Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands
3
Smartphones For Water Nepal (S4W-Nepal), Thasikhel, Lalitpur 44700, Nepal
4
Department of Civil Engineering and College of Agriculture, California State University, Chico, CA 90802, USA
5
SmartPhones4Water, Chico, CA 95928, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Water 2020, 12(11), 3229; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113229
Received: 10 October 2020 / Revised: 6 November 2020 / Accepted: 16 November 2020 / Published: 18 November 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
Like other cities in the Kathmandu Valley, Bhaktapur faces rapid urbanisation and population growth. Rivers are negatively impacted by uncontrolled settlements in flood-prone areas, lowering permeability, decreasing channels widths, and waste blockage. All these issues, along with more extreme rain events during the monsoon due to climate change, have led to increased flooding in Bhaktapur, especially by the Hanumante River. For a better understanding of flood risk, the first step is a return level analysis. For this, historical data are essential. Unfortunately, historical records of water levels are non-existent for the Hanumante River. We measured water levels and discharge on a regular basis starting from the 2019 monsoon (i.e., June). To reconstruct the missing historical data needed for a return level analysis, this research introduces the Classical Model for Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ). By employing SEJ, we were able to reconstruct historical water level data. Expert assessments were validated using the limited data available. Based on the reconstructed data, it was possible to estimate the return periods of extreme water levels of the Hanumante River by fitting a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Using this distribution, we estimated that a water level of about 3.5 m has a return period of ten years. This research showed that, despite considerable uncertainty in the results, the SEJ method has potential for return level analyses. View Full-Text
Keywords: Structured Expert Judgment; water levels; flood risk; return level analysis; Hanumante River; Kathmandu Structured Expert Judgment; water levels; flood risk; return level analysis; Hanumante River; Kathmandu
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Kindermann, P.E.; Brouwer, W.S.; van Hamel, A.; van Haren, M.; Verboeket, R.P.; Nane, G.F.; Lakhe, H.; Prajapati, R.; Davids, J.C. Return Level Analysis of the Hanumante River Using Structured Expert Judgment: A Reconstruction of Historical Water Levels. Water 2020, 12, 3229. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113229

AMA Style

Kindermann PE, Brouwer WS, van Hamel A, van Haren M, Verboeket RP, Nane GF, Lakhe H, Prajapati R, Davids JC. Return Level Analysis of the Hanumante River Using Structured Expert Judgment: A Reconstruction of Historical Water Levels. Water. 2020; 12(11):3229. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113229

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kindermann, Paulina E.; Brouwer, Wietske S.; van Hamel, Amber; van Haren, Mick; Verboeket, Rik P.; Nane, Gabriela F.; Lakhe, Hanik; Prajapati, Rajaram; Davids, Jeffrey C. 2020. "Return Level Analysis of the Hanumante River Using Structured Expert Judgment: A Reconstruction of Historical Water Levels" Water 12, no. 11: 3229. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12113229

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Search more from Scilit
 
Search
Back to TopTop