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Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey)

1
Department of Civil Engineering, Erzurum Technical University, 25050 Erzurum, Turkey
2
Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università del Salento, I-73100 Lecce, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2020, 12(10), 2848; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102848
Received: 26 August 2020 / Revised: 22 September 2020 / Accepted: 9 October 2020 / Published: 13 October 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology and Hydrogeology)
Bivariate modeling and hazard assessment of low flows are performed exploiting copulas. 7-day low flows observed, respectively, in the upper, middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin (Turkey) are examined, considering three pairs of certified stations located in different sub-basins. A thorough statistical analysis indicates that the GEV distribution can be used to model the marginal behavior of the low-flow. The joint distributions at each part are modeled via a dozen of copula families. As a result, the Husler–Reiss copula adequately fits the joint low flows in the upper part, while the t-Student copula turns out to best fit the other parts. In order to assess the low-flow hazard, these copulas are then used to compute joint return periods and failure probabilities under a critical bivariate “AND” hazard scenario. The results indicate that the middle and lower parts of the Çoruh basin are likely to experience the largest drought hazards. As a novelty, the statistical tools used allow to objectively quantify drought threatening in a thorough multivariate perspective, which involves distributional analysis, frequency analysis (return periods) and hazard analysis (failure probabilities). View Full-Text
Keywords: low-flow; hazard assessment; return period; failure probability; copula; Çoruh basin low-flow; hazard assessment; return period; failure probability; copula; Çoruh basin
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Tosunoğlu, F.; Salvadori, G.; Yilmaz, M. Multivariate Assessment of Low-Flow Hazards via Copulas: The Case Study of the Çoruh Basin (Turkey). Water 2020, 12, 2848.

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