Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparison between Continuous and Event-Based Modeling of Streamflow Based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) Model
by
Hui Xie 1,2
, Zhenyao Shen 1,*, Lei Chen 1, Xijun Lai 2, Jiali Qiu 1, Guoyuan Wei 1, Jianwei Dong 3, Yexuan Peng 4 and Xinquan Chen 4
Hui Xie 1,2, Zhenyao Shen 1,*, Lei Chen 1, Xijun Lai 2, Jiali Qiu 1, Guoyuan Wei 1, Jianwei Dong 3, Yexuan Peng 4 and Xinquan Chen 4
1
State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
2
Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
3
Center for Eco-Environment Research, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210098, China
4
Water and Soil Conservation Bureau of Zigui, Zigui 443600, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(1), 171; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11010171
Received: 10 December 2018 / Revised: 9 January 2019 / Accepted: 10 January 2019 / Published: 18 January 2019
(This article belongs to the Section Hydrology)
Hydrologic modeling is usually applied to two scenarios: continuous and event-based modeling, between which hydrologists often neglect the significant differences in model application. In this study, a comparison-based procedure concerning parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis is presented based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) model. Calibrated parameters related to base flow and moisture distribution showed marked differences between the continuous and event-based modeling. Results of the regionalized sensitivity analysis identified event-dependent parameters and showed that gravity drainage and storage outflow were the primary runoff generation processes for both scenarios. The overall performance of the event-based simulation was better than that of the daily simulation for streamflow based on the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The GLUE analysis also indicated that the performance of the continuous model was limited by several extreme events and low flows. In the event-based scenario, the HSPF model performances decreased as the precipitation became intense in the event-based modeling. The structure error of the HSFP model was recognized at the initial phase of the rainfall-event period. This study presents a valuable opportunity to understand dominant controls in different hydrologic scenario and guide the application of the HSPF model.
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Keywords:
streamflow; event-based; rainfall–runoff event; HSPF; parameter sensitivity; GLUE
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MDPI and ACS Style
Xie, H.; Shen, Z.; Chen, L.; Lai, X.; Qiu, J.; Wei, G.; Dong, J.; Peng, Y.; Chen, X. Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis: A Comparison between Continuous and Event-Based Modeling of Streamflow Based on the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran (HSPF) Model. Water 2019, 11, 171.
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