Next Article in Journal
Structural Holes in Social Networks with Exogenous Cliques
Previous Article in Journal
Game Theory of Pollution: National Policies and Their International Effects
Open AccessArticle

The Monty Hall Problem as a Bayesian Game

Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Games 2017, 8(3), 31;
Received: 25 May 2017 / Revised: 7 July 2017 / Accepted: 20 July 2017 / Published: 26 July 2017
PDF [417 KB, uploaded 26 July 2017]


This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty’s motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty and show that, under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one in which the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. In particular, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998), that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases. View Full-Text
Keywords: monty hall; equiprobability bias; games of incomplete information; bayes nash equilibrium monty hall; equiprobability bias; games of incomplete information; bayes nash equilibrium

Figure 1

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).

Share & Cite This Article

MDPI and ACS Style

Whitmeyer, M. The Monty Hall Problem as a Bayesian Game. Games 2017, 8, 31.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats

Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Related Articles

Article Metrics

Article Access Statistics



[Return to top]
Games EISSN 2073-4336 Published by MDPI AG, Basel, Switzerland RSS E-Mail Table of Contents Alert
Back to Top