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The Monty Hall Problem as a Bayesian Game

Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712, USA
Games 2017, 8(3), 31; https://doi.org/10.3390/g8030031
Received: 25 May 2017 / Revised: 7 July 2017 / Accepted: 20 July 2017 / Published: 26 July 2017
This paper formulates the classic Monty Hall problem as a Bayesian game. Allowing Monty a small amount of freedom in his decisions facilitates a variety of solutions. The solution concept used is the Bayes Nash Equilibrium (BNE), and the set of BNE relies on Monty’s motives and incentives. We endow Monty and the contestant with common prior probabilities (p) about the motives of Monty and show that, under certain conditions on p, the unique equilibrium is one in which the contestant is indifferent between switching and not switching. This coincides and agrees with the typical responses and explanations by experimental subjects. In particular, we show that our formulation can explain the experimental results in Page (1998), that more people gradually choose switch as the number of doors in the problem increases. View Full-Text
Keywords: monty hall; equiprobability bias; games of incomplete information; bayes nash equilibrium monty hall; equiprobability bias; games of incomplete information; bayes nash equilibrium
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Whitmeyer, M. The Monty Hall Problem as a Bayesian Game. Games 2017, 8, 31.

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