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Open AccessArticle

Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico

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Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Río Papaloapan y Blvd, Durango S/N Col. Valle del Sur, CP 34120 Durango, Mexico
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Instituto de Silvicultura e Industria de la madera, Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango, Boulevard del Guadiana 501, Ciudad Universitaria, Torre de Investigación, 34120 Durango, Mexico
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Comisión Nacional para el Conocimiento y Uso de la Biodiversidad (CONABIO), Liga Periférico-Insurgentes Sur 4903, Parques del Pedregal, Del. Tlalpan, CP 14010 Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico
4
School of Environmental and Forest Sciences. University of Washington, Mailbox 352100, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA
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Pacific Southwest Research Station, US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, (retired), 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA 92507, USA
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Centro de Investigación Forestal–Lourizán, Xunta de Galicia (Spain), Carretera de Marín km 3.5, CP 36153 Pontevedra, Spain
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Departamento de Ingeniería Agroforestal, Universidad de Santiago de Compostela, Escuela Politécnica Superior de Ingeniería, Campus Universitario s/n, 27002 Lugo, Spain
8
Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, (retired), 1505 Khanabad Drive, Missoula, MT 59802, USA
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Pacific Southwest Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 800 Buchanan, St. Albany, CA 94710, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2018, 9(4), 190; https://doi.org/10.3390/f9040190
Received: 20 February 2018 / Revised: 24 March 2018 / Accepted: 29 March 2018 / Published: 7 April 2018
Understanding the linkage between accumulated fuel dryness and temporal fire occurrence risk is key for improving decision-making in forest fire management, especially under growing conditions of vegetation stress associated with climate change. This study addresses the development of models to predict the number of 10-day observed Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire hotspots—expressed as a Fire Hotspot Density index (FHD)—from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (AcFDI), for 17 main vegetation types and regions in Mexico, for the period 2011–2015. The AcFDI was calculated by applying vegetation-specific thresholds for fire occurrence to a satellite-based fuel dryness index (FDI), which was developed after the structure of the Fire Potential Index (FPI). Linear and non-linear models were tested for the prediction of FHD from FDI and AcFDI. Non-linear quantile regression models gave the best results for predicting FHD using AcFDI, together with auto-regression from previously observed hotspot density values. The predictions of 10-day observed FHD values were reasonably good with R2 values of 0.5 to 0.7 suggesting the potential to be used as an operational tool for predicting the expected number of fire hotspots by vegetation type and region in Mexico. The presented modeling strategy could be replicated for any fire danger index in any region, based on information from MODIS or other remote sensors. View Full-Text
Keywords: MODIS; fire hotspots; fire occurrence risk; fire danger systems MODIS; fire hotspots; fire occurrence risk; fire danger systems
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MDPI and ACS Style

Vega-Nieva, D.J.; Briseño-Reyes, J.; Nava-Miranda, M.G.; Calleros-Flores, E.; López-Serrano, P.M.; Corral-Rivas, J.J.; Montiel-Antuna, E.; Cruz-López, M.I.; Cuahutle, M.; Ressl, R.; Alvarado-Celestino, E.; González-Cabán, A.; Jiménez, E.; Álvarez-González, J.G.; Ruiz-González, A.D.; Burgan, R.E.; Preisler, H.K. Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico. Forests 2018, 9, 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/f9040190

AMA Style

Vega-Nieva DJ, Briseño-Reyes J, Nava-Miranda MG, Calleros-Flores E, López-Serrano PM, Corral-Rivas JJ, Montiel-Antuna E, Cruz-López MI, Cuahutle M, Ressl R, Alvarado-Celestino E, González-Cabán A, Jiménez E, Álvarez-González JG, Ruiz-González AD, Burgan RE, Preisler HK. Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico. Forests. 2018; 9(4):190. https://doi.org/10.3390/f9040190

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vega-Nieva, D. J.; Briseño-Reyes, J.; Nava-Miranda, M. G.; Calleros-Flores, E.; López-Serrano, P. M.; Corral-Rivas, J. J.; Montiel-Antuna, E.; Cruz-López, M. I.; Cuahutle, M.; Ressl, R.; Alvarado-Celestino, E.; González-Cabán, A.; Jiménez, E.; Álvarez-González, J. G.; Ruiz-González, A. D.; Burgan, R. E.; Preisler, H. K. 2018. "Developing Models to Predict the Number of Fire Hotspots from an Accumulated Fuel Dryness Index by Vegetation Type and Region in Mexico" Forests 9, no. 4: 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/f9040190

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