Mortality and Recovery of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in Response to Winter Temperatures and Predictions for the Future
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Winter Mortality
2.2. Progrediens Recovery
2.3. Temperature Data
2.4. Data Analysis
2.5. Climate Change Projections
3. Results
3.1. Winter Mortality
3.2. Progrediens Recovery
3.3. Climate Change Projections
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Equation | Coefficient | Standard Error | Wald χ2 | p | AIC | R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(1) | 27,655 | 0.631 | ||||
p0 | −5.7290 | 0.0443 | 16,723 | <0.0001 | ||
p1Tmin | −0.3311 | 0.0023 | 21,389 | <0.0001 | ||
(2) | 24,944 | 0.669 | ||||
p0 | −4.9946 | 0.0526 | 9,008 | <0.0001 | ||
p1Tmin | −0.2760 | 0.0035 | 6,163 | <0.0001 | ||
p2N−1 | 0.0549 | 0.0013 | 1,829 | <0.0001 | ||
p3Q3 | 0.1416 | 0.0032 | 1,968 | <0.0001 | ||
(3) | 22,554 | 0.647 | ||||
p0,2014 | −2.3225 | 0.1760 | 1,089 | <0.0001 | ||
p0,2015 | −5.8618 | 0.1640 | 192 | <0.0001 | ||
p0,2016 | −4.8990 | 0.1887 | 293 | <0.0001 | ||
p0,2017 | −8.1307 | 0.1452 | 3,135 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,2014 Tmin | −0.1767 | 0.0092 | 685 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,2015 Tmin | −0.3666 | 0.0090 | 31 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,2016 Tmin | −0.2975 | 0.0101 | 141 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,2017 Tmin | −0.4168 | 0.0080 | 2,714 | <0.0001 | ||
(4) | 26,159 | 0.605 | ||||
p0,5 | −2.7359 | 0.2194 | 197 | <0.0001 | ||
p0,6 | −6.6776 | 0.1705 | 26 | <0.0001 | ||
p0,7 | −5.8135 | 0.1571 | 1,369 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,5 Tmin | −0.1898 | 0.0115 | 169 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,6 Tmin | −0.3852 | 0.0102 | 20 | <0.0001 | ||
p1,7 Tmin | −0.3397 | 0.0096 | 1,262 | <0.0001 |
Equation | Coefficient | Standard Error | Student’s T | p | R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
(5) | 0.336 | ||||
p0 | 8.16900 | 2.71100 | 3.01 | 0.006 | |
p1ln(S) | −0.65160 | 0.23190 | −2.81 | 0.009 | |
p2Tmin | 0.23890 | 0.13790 | 1.73 | 0.095 | |
p3N−1 | 0.01540 | 0.12110 | 0.13 | 0.899 | |
p4Q3 | 0.00782 | 0.02736 | 0.29 | 0.777 | |
p5Tmin,pro | 0.04580 | 0.13540 | 0.34 | 0.738 | |
p6N−1,pro | −0.05530 | 0.11900 | −0.46 | 0.646 | |
p7DDpro | −0.00131 | 0.00100 | −1.30 | 0.203 | |
(6) | 0.251 | ||||
p0 | 5.074 | 1.445 | 3.83 | 0.001 | |
p1ln(S) | −0.5187 | 0.1651 | −3.75 | 0.004 | |
p2Tmin | 0.14227 | 0.05831 | 3.09 | 0.020 |
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McAvoy, T.J.; Régnière, J.; St-Amant, R.; Schneeberger, N.F.; Salom, S.M. Mortality and Recovery of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in Response to Winter Temperatures and Predictions for the Future. Forests 2017, 8, 497. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120497
McAvoy TJ, Régnière J, St-Amant R, Schneeberger NF, Salom SM. Mortality and Recovery of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in Response to Winter Temperatures and Predictions for the Future. Forests. 2017; 8(12):497. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120497
Chicago/Turabian StyleMcAvoy, Thomas. J., Jacques Régnière, Rémi St-Amant, Noel F. Schneeberger, and Scott M. Salom. 2017. "Mortality and Recovery of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in Response to Winter Temperatures and Predictions for the Future" Forests 8, no. 12: 497. https://doi.org/10.3390/f8120497