Modeling Prices for Sawtimber Stumpage in the South-Central United States
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Empirical Model and Estimation Methods
i = LA, TX, MS, AR; t = 1981q1, 1981q2, … , 2014q4
3. Data
4. Empirical Results
5. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variable a | Description | Unit |
---|---|---|
pstit | Price of softwood sawtimber stumpage | $/MBF (Doyle) |
ppwit | Price of softwood pulpwood stumpage | $/cord |
pcnsit | Price of chip-n-saw | $/cord |
plumit | #2, 2 × 4 KD southern yellow pine (westside) | $/MBF |
sowl | PNW federal timber harvest reductions | 1 if date ≥ 1993q1, 0 otherwise |
recs08 | Great financial crisis 2008 | 1 if 2008q1 ≤ date ≤ 2009q2, 0 otherwise |
post_recs | Post-financial crisis period | 1 if date > 2009q2, 0 otherwise |
Variable | Mean a | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|
pst in LA | 194.71 | 66.51 | 95.16 | 367.57 |
ppw in LA | 15.66 | 3.47 | 10.20 | 24.74 |
pcns in LA | 46.27 | 20.25 | 16.78 | 93.11 |
pst in TX | 192.59 | 78.44 | 84.08 | 374.10 |
ppw in TX | 15.58 | 5.59 | 7.06 | 32.47 |
pcns in TX | 30.28 | 13.11 | 7.17 | 65.56 |
pst in MS | 205.71 | 82.60 | 88.83 | 368.95 |
ppw in MS | 13.97 | 3.97 | 8.35 | 30.59 |
pcns in MS | 39.45 | 14.96 | 17.54 | 75.85 |
pst in AR | 194.60 | 72.73 | 94.11 | 375.90 |
ppw in AR | 12.62 | 2.92 | 8.23 | 23.25 |
pcns in AR | 35.32 | 12.39 | 17.78 | 77.88 |
plum | 235.18 | 62.31 | 128.70 | 407.63 |
sowl | 0.65 | 0.48 | 0 | 1 |
recs08 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 0 | 1 |
post_recs | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0 | 1 |
Variable | SUR Coefficient Estimates | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Louisiana | Texas | Mississippi | Arkansas | |
ppwit | 0.052 (0.04) | 0.059 a (0.02) | −0.010 (0.04) | 0.094 a (0.04) |
pcnsit | 0.01 (0.02) | 0.046 b (0.02) | 0.068 b (0.04) | 0.111 a (0.04) |
plumit | 0.157 a (0.03) | 0.149 a (0.04) | 0.133 a (0.04) | 0.132 a (0.05) |
pstit-1 | 0.745 a (0.04) | 0.715 a (0.05) | 0.777 a (0.04) | 0.630 a (0.05) |
sowl | 0.088 a (0.03) | 0.095 a (0.03) | 0.064 a (0.02) | 0.128 a (0.03) |
recs08 | −0.054 (0.04) | −0.152 a (0.05) | −0.061 (0.04) | −0.164 a (0.06) |
post-recs | −0.088 a (0.03) | −0.125 a (0.04) | −0.104 a (0.04) | −0.173 a (0.05) |
quarter 2 | −0.060 a (0.02) | −0.025 (0.02) | −0.045 a (0.02) | −0.024 (0.02) |
quarter 3 | −0.041 a (0.02) | −0.013 (0.02) | −0.026 (0.02) | −0.061 a (0.02) |
quarter 4 | −0.022 (0.02) | −0.001 (0.02) | −0.001 (0.02) | −0.015 (0.02) |
constant | 0.284 (0.22) | 0.320 (0.26) | 0.218 (0.25) | 0.563 (0.31) |
Q-test for white noise at 4 lags | 3.78 [0.44] | 2.59 [0.36] | 4.25 [0.37] | 6.47 [0.17] |
R2 | 0.961 | 0.958 | 0.968 | 0.939 |
Breusch-Pagan test of independence—χ2(6): 108.63, p-value = 0.0000 |
Variable | Granger Causality Wald Test—χ2 value, p-values in brackets | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Louisiana (Lags = 1) | Texas (Lags = 1) | Mississippi (Lags = 3) | Arkansas (Lags = 3) | |
pst to ppw | 0.61 [0.43] | 1.05 [0.31] | 1.69 [0.19] | 0.08 [0.77] |
ppw to pst | 4.79 [0.03] | 0.01 [0.99] | 8.28 [0.00] | 0.01 [0.95] |
pst to pcns | 0.19 [0.66] | 0.01 [0.92] | 1.18 [0.28] | 0.02 [0.87] |
pcns to pst | 13.05 [0.00] | 21.12 [0.00] | 9.26 [0.00] | 2.83 [0.09] |
pst to plum | 15.15 [0.00] | 19.35 [0.00] | 11.09 [0.00] | 11.20 [0.00] |
plum to pst | 0.72 [0.39] | 0.74 [0.39] | 0.09 [0.76] | 1.95 [0.16] |
ppw to pcns | 1.80 [0.18] | 1.00 [0.32] | 0.79 [0.37] | 2.38 [0.12] |
pcns to ppw | 0.46 [0.49] | 2.58 [0.10] | 2.08 [0.15] | 0.13 [0.72] |
ppw to plum | 0.42 [0.52] | 0.06 [0.81] | 0.44 [0.51] | 1.80 [0.18] |
plum to ppw | 3.22 [0.07] | 1.42 [0.23] | 0.01 [0.98] | 0.01 [0.92] |
pcns to plum | 0.01 [0.91] | 0.88 [0.35] | 10.98 [0.00] | 2.16 [0.14] |
plum to pcns | 0.88 [0.35] | 0.01 [0.92] | 1.69 [0.19] | 4.19 [0.04] |
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Parajuli, R.; Tanger, S.; Joshi, O.; Henderson, J. Modeling Prices for Sawtimber Stumpage in the South-Central United States. Forests 2016, 7, 148. https://doi.org/10.3390/f7070148
Parajuli R, Tanger S, Joshi O, Henderson J. Modeling Prices for Sawtimber Stumpage in the South-Central United States. Forests. 2016; 7(7):148. https://doi.org/10.3390/f7070148
Chicago/Turabian StyleParajuli, Rajan, Shaun Tanger, Omkar Joshi, and James Henderson. 2016. "Modeling Prices for Sawtimber Stumpage in the South-Central United States" Forests 7, no. 7: 148. https://doi.org/10.3390/f7070148