Next Article in Journal
Forest Phenology Shifts in Response to Climate Change over China–Mongolia–Russia International Economic Corridor
Previous Article in Journal
Expandable Graphite as a Fire Retardant for Cellulosic Materials—A Review
Article

Impacts of Global Climate Change on Duration of Logging Season in Siberian Boreal Forests

1
School of Economics, Management and Environmental Studies, Siberian Federal University, 660041 Krasnoyarsk, Russia
2
Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, 630090 Novosibirsk, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2020, 11(7), 756; https://doi.org/10.3390/f11070756
Received: 1 June 2020 / Revised: 9 July 2020 / Accepted: 10 July 2020 / Published: 14 July 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Economics, Policy, and Social Science)
In Siberia, most boreal forests are located in an area with relatively moist forest soils, which makes logging activities possible exclusively during the frost period with a permanent snow cover and stable sub-zero temperatures. As the global climate is experiencing a trend towards warming, it is reasonable to suppose that the duration of the logging season might shorten over time, influencing the economic potential of Siberian forests. To test this hypothesis, we created a concept for calculating the duration of the logging season, taking into account the economic and climatic peculiarities of doing forest business in these territories. Using the long-run daily-observed climatic data, we calculated the duration of the logging season for eight representative stations in Krasnoyarsk Krai (Yeniseysk, Boguchany, Achinsk, and Minusinsk) and Irkutsk Oblast (Bratsk, Kirensk, Tulun, and Yerbogachen) in 1966–2018. We found strong evidence of logging season duration shortening for almost all considered stations, with an uneven effect on the start and end boundaries of the season. Climate warming has almost no effect on the start date of the season in winter, but it significantly shifts the boundaries of the season end in spring. Using the autoregressive-integrated-moving average modeling (ARIMA) models, we demonstrated that, in the near future, the trends of the gradual shortening of the logging season will hold for the most part of the considered stations. The most pronounced effect is observed for the Achinsk station, where the logging season will shorten from 148.4 ± 17.3 days during the historical sample (1966–2018) to 136.2 ± 30 days in 2028, which reflects global warming trend patterns. From an economic perspective, a shorter duration of the logging season means fewer wood stocks available for cutting, which would impact the ability of companies to enact their logging plans and lead them to suffer losses in the future. To avoid losses, Siberian forest firms will have to adapt to these changes by redefining their economic strategies in terms of intensifying logging operations. View Full-Text
Keywords: forest economics; global climate change; logging season duration; ARIMA modeling; Mann–Kendall test; wood industry; Siberia; Russia forest economics; global climate change; logging season duration; ARIMA modeling; Mann–Kendall test; wood industry; Siberia; Russia
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Chugunkova, A.V.; Pyzhev, A.I. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Duration of Logging Season in Siberian Boreal Forests. Forests 2020, 11, 756. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11070756

AMA Style

Chugunkova AV, Pyzhev AI. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Duration of Logging Season in Siberian Boreal Forests. Forests. 2020; 11(7):756. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11070756

Chicago/Turabian Style

Chugunkova, Anna V., and Anton I. Pyzhev 2020. "Impacts of Global Climate Change on Duration of Logging Season in Siberian Boreal Forests" Forests 11, no. 7: 756. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11070756

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop