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Open AccessArticle

Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling

1
Research Institute of Forest Ecology, Environment and Protection, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Key Laboratory of Forest Protection, State Forestry Administration, Beijing 100091, China
2
Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 70 Foster Drive, Suite 400, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 6V5, Canada
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2019, 10(8), 611; https://doi.org/10.3390/f10080611
Received: 30 May 2019 / Revised: 21 July 2019 / Accepted: 22 July 2019 / Published: 24 July 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Fires under Climate, Social and Economic Changes)
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Abstract

Projecting the burn probability (BP) under future climate scenarios would provide a scientific basis for the implementation of forest fire adaptation technology. This study compared the changes in the climate, fire weather, and burn probability during the fire season in Daxing’anling, China. A burn probability model was established and used to simulate the daily fire occurrence and spread at baseline (1971–2000) and into the 2030s (2021–2050) based on the outputs from five global climate models (GCMs) (GFDL-ESM2M, Had GEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and Nor ESM1-M) under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). The results showed that the average daily maximum temperature in the fire season will be increased by 2.1 °C (+16.6%) in the 2030s compared with the baseline and precipitation in the fire season will be increased by 7.1%. The average fire weather index (FWI) of the fire season in the 2030s will be increased by 4.2%, but this change is not significant. There will be 39 fires per year in the 2030s, representing an increase of 11.4%. The accuracy of simulated burned areas was 71.2% for the 1991–2010 period. The simulated and observed burned areas showed similar interannual fluctuations during period 1971–2010. The potential burned areas in the 2030s will increase by 18.8% over those in the baseline period and the BP will increase by 19.4%. The implementation of proactive fire management in areas with high predicted BP values will be key for an effective mitigation of future wildfire impacts. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; burn probability; fire simulation; Daxing’anling climate change; burn probability; fire simulation; Daxing’anling
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Tian, X.; Cui, W.; Shu, L.; Zong, X. Effects of Climate Change on Burn Probability of Forests in Daxing’anling. Forests 2019, 10, 611.

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