Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Setting
2.2. Unvaccinated COVID-19 Cases
2.3. Participant COVID-19 Cases with Delta Variant and Non-Delta Strains
2.4. Statistical Analysis
2.5. Ethical Approval
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Variables | N |
---|---|
Total | 224 |
Sex | |
Male | 156 |
Female | 68 |
Age | |
≤29 | 119 |
≥30 | 105 |
Delta mutation | |
Delta | 121 |
Non-Delta | 103 |
Parameters | Delta | Non-Delta | Mann–Whitney U Test | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | Mean | N | Mean | p-Value | |
(Days) | (Days) | ||||
Incubation period | 120 | 3.7 | 100 | 4.9 | 0.000 |
Serial interval | 88 | 2.8 | 66 | 3.3 | 0.227 |
Transmission time relative to onset | 94 | −0.94 | 66 | −1.39 | 0.012 |
Parameters | Fitted Distribution | Delta | Non-Delta | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meanlog/Shape | Sdlog/Rate | Meanlog/Shape | Sdlog/Rate | ||
Days (95% CI) | Days (95% CI) | Days (95% CI) | Days (95% CI) | ||
Incubation period | Lognormal (Meanlog/Sdlog) | 1.25 (1.19–1.31) | 0.34 (0.30–0.39) | 1.52 (1.43–1.60) | 0.42(0.37–0.48) |
Serial interval (added 3 days) | Gamma (Shape/Rate) | 7.1 (5.1–9.5) | 1.24 (0.88–1.67) | 6.1 (4.2–8.2) | 0.97 (2.6–4.0) |
Transmission time relative to onset (added 5 days) | Gamma (Shape/Rate) | 5.5 (4.0–7.3) | 1.37 (0.98–1.81) | 4.7 (3.3–6.3) | 1.32(0.90–1.80) |
Indicators | Delta | Non-Delta |
---|---|---|
Days (95% CI) | Days (95% CI) | |
Mean | 3.7 (3.4–4.0) | 5.0 (4.5–5.6) |
Median | 3.5 (3.3–3.7) | 4.6 (4.2–5.0) |
2.5th percentile | 1.8 (1.5–2.1) | 2.0 (1.6–2.4) |
97.5th percentile | 6.9 (5.9–8.0) | 10.4 (8.6–12.7) |
Variables | Mean | Mono-Variable Mean Estimate (95% CI) | |
---|---|---|---|
N | (Days) | (Days) | |
Total | 120 | 3.7 | 3.7 (3.4–4.0) |
Sex | |||
Male | 82 | 3.6 | 3.7 (3.4–4.0) |
Female | 38 | 3.8 | 3.9 (3.3–4.6) |
Age | |||
≤29 | 77 | 3.6 | 3.6 (3.3–4.0) |
≥30 | 43 | 3.9 | 3.9 (3.4–4.5) |
Eating of infector and/or patient at exposure | |||
Yes | 58 | 3.9 | 3.8 (3.4–4.4) |
No or unknown | 62 | 3.6 | 3.6 (3.3–3.9) |
Setting | |||
Restaurant | 33 | 3.9 | 3.9 (3.2–4.8) |
School | 29 | 3.8 | 3.8 (3.2–4.6) |
House | 22 | 3.8 | 3.8 (3.3–4.6) |
Others | 36 | 3.4 | 3.4 (3.1–3.9) |
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Ogata, T.; Tanaka, H.; Irie, F.; Hirayama, A.; Takahashi, Y. Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031127
Ogata T, Tanaka H, Irie F, Hirayama A, Takahashi Y. Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(3):1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031127
Chicago/Turabian StyleOgata, Tsuyoshi, Hideo Tanaka, Fujiko Irie, Atsushi Hirayama, and Yuki Takahashi. 2022. "Shorter Incubation Period among Unvaccinated Delta Variant Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients in Japan" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 3: 1127. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19031127