1. Introduction
Obesity, an excessive or abnormal fat accumulation, is a major risk factor for several chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) [
1]. In some developed countries, such as the U.S., the prevalence of obesity was 42.4% in adults in 2017–2018, according to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey [
2]. In the European region, the prevalence of obesity ranged from 14.2% to 32.1% (an average of 23.3%) among adults in 2016 [
3]. Compared to developed countries, the developing countries are challenged by the double burden of undernutrition and overnutrition, with limited resources to handle chronic diseases [
4]. The prevalence of obesity among adults in developing countries varied according to the country’s income level. For example, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the lower-middle-income countries had an average prevalence of 20.5%, while a higher prevalence was reported in upper-middle (25.4%) and high-income (33.1%) countries in 2008 [
5]. In Jordan, an upper-middle-income country, the prevalence of obesity was 28.1% in 2016 (21.0% of males and 35.6% of females) [
6].
Obesity is associated with a low quality of life and an increased risk of chronic diseases and health outcomes [
7]. For instance, obesity, especially abdominal obesity, might be associated with T2D by developing insulin resistance [
8]. Obesity might also be related to several cardiometabolic risk factors, such as increased blood pressure, dyslipidemia, inflammation, and endothelial dysfunction [
9]. Collectively, insulin resistance and other cardiometabolic risk factors might be associated with an increased risk of CVD among obese individuals [
8,
9].
Obesity could be determined using the body mass index (BMI) [
1], and, more precisely, abdominal obesity could be evaluated by measuring the waist circumference (WC) [
10]. BMI and WC were used as risk factors in several T2D risk prediction models [
11]. A review of five cohort studies showed that the association of T2D with BMI or WC differed depending on the ethnic groups. So far, several cross-sectional studies showed the WC as a better predictor for T2D [
12]. For CVD prediction models, QRISK included BMI in the model as a risk factor for CVD [
13], while other models such as Framingham, Reynolds, and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) prediction charts neither incorporated BMI nor WC in the prediction model [
14]. An analysis of 58 prospective cohort studies from 17 developed countries showed that obesity and central obesity measures did not improve CVD risk prediction among adults [
15]. However, WHO indicated that CVD risk would be higher than the predicted risk in the presence of obesity and central obesity [
16].
Referring to their strong association and their role in increasing CVD risk [
17,
18] and T2D [
19,
20], identifying the risk of CVD and T2D through obesity and central obesity measurements might be necessary to prevent these diseases. As diseases are caused by a complex interplay between several risk factors, an effective health intervention depends on targeting each risk factor distinctly [
21]. Studies showed that a BMI and WC reduction was associated with reducing the risk of developing T2D [
22,
23] and CVD risk factors [
24,
25].
As different populations showed differences in the association between BMI/WC and T2D/CVD risk, it is necessary to investigate these associations among adults in Jordan, a developing upper-middle-income country. We also aimed to identify the association between Jordanians’ demographic characteristics and obesity (measured by BMI), abdominal obesity (measured by WC), T2D, and CVD. The results of this study might help in designing future interventions aiming to reduce the prevalence of T2D and CVD among Jordanian adults.
4. Discussion
Our results presented BMI as a better predictor for T2D than WC, while WC was a better predictor for CVD than BMI among Jordanian adults. The suitability of different anthropometric measurements and prediction models for predicting chronic diseases among Jordanian and Arab adults might differ from that of other populations due to ethnic differences [
10,
34].
In this nationwide study, the obesity prevalence was 41.8%, with 45.0% in females and 33.0% in males. Our results were consistent with a previous study in Jordan reporting a high obesity prevalence wherein 36.1% of males and 48.2% of females had obesity [
35], but it is higher than the prevalence reported by WHO in 2016, which was 21.0% in males and 35.6% in females [
6].
In this study, the prevalence of obesity was positively associated with age in males and females, with its highest prevalence among participants with 41–50 years. By comparison, in Iran, another country in the Middle East, the differences in the prevalence of obesity between age groups were not significant. Yet, the highest prevalence was associated with being 55–59 years old [
36]. In Norway, the highest prevalence of obesity according to age group differed between sexes, as it was between 70 and 74 years in women and between 45 and 49 years in men. The prevalence of abdominal obesity was also higher in the elderly compared to young adults in Norway and Portugal [
37,
38], which was consistent with our results. In China, older individuals were more likely to have a higher WC than younger adults [
39]. In this study, we found that low income and low education levels might be associated with increased obesity and abdominal obesity among the study population. Similarly, in Iran, obesity prevalence was associated with low education levels, wherein the illiterate were more obese than individuals with college education [
36]. A lower educational level was also associated with a higher prevalence of obesity and abdominal obesity in Portugal [
38]. In China, individuals with moderate, moderate-high, or high WC had a low education but a high-income level than others with low WC within a long time interval [
39]. Another study across low- and middle-income countries showed that obesity prevalence might increase with increasing education, and it was positively associated with the country’s income level. Further, the study reported a stronger association between increased BMI and diabetes when the country’s income level increased [
40].
The rising prevalence of overnutrition is alarming and needs a serious intervention due to the strong association between adiposity, obesity, and central obesity with CVD and T2D [
10]. As shown in this study, the prevalence of CVD and T2D was higher among participants who had obesity or central obesity, which is consistent with the literature [
39,
41,
42]. Studies from the U.S. indicated that adults having a BMI above the normal (over 24.9 kg/m
2) were at increased risk of developing CVD [
43] and T2D [
44]. A Korean study reported an increased risk of CVD among male and female adults with a BMI of ≥26.2 and ≥28.7 kg/m
2, respectively. For T2D, the increased risk of disease was associated with a BMI of ≥24.2 in men and ≥23.6 in women [
45]. The increase in central obesity, measured by WC, was associated with a 2% increase in the relative risk of CVD and an 8% increase in the relative risk of T2D with each unit increase in WC [
46,
47].
CVD are the major contributors to deaths from non-communicable diseases worldwide, followed by cancer, respiratory diseases, and DM [
48]. An estimated 17.9 million people died from CVD in 2019, representing 32% of all global deaths. Of these deaths, 85% were due to heart attack and stroke [
29]. In 2019, DM was the ninth leading cause of death, with an estimated 1.5 million deaths directly caused by DM. The prevalence has been rising more rapidly in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries [
49]. CVD is also the main contributor to premature deaths, and it accounts for 22% of all deaths in the European Union [
50]. In 2016, the WHO reported that CVD and T2D accounted for 37% and 6% of all deaths among Jordanians [
27]. A systematic review for the prevalence of CVD and T2D, as one of the CVD’s risk factors, in some countries of the Middle East showed that CVD prevalence was 10.1% and the prevalence of DM was 16% [
51]. However, no representative study showed the prevalence of at-risk or existing CVD among Jordanians [
27], while the WHO estimated the prevalence of DM in 2014 to be 13% [
48].
Our study showed that the prevalence of CVD and T2D was 6.3% and 12.8%, respectively. A recent review showed that the prevalence of some types of CVD among Lebanese men was 10.1% for myocardial infarction and 8.2% for angina, while the prevalence of total coronary artery disease was 13.4% for adults above 40 years [
52]. CVD prevalence among Jordanians was comparable to its prevalence in Lebanon (6.5%) in 2014. However, the prevalence was lower than the prevalence in other Middle Eastern countries, including Oman (9.4%) and Iran (11.2%) in 2018, and higher than the prevalence in Turkey in 2015 [
51]. The prevalence of DM was consistent with previous data provided by the international DM federation (11.8%) in 2017. The DM prevalence in Jordan was comparable to its prevalence in other nearby countries such as Lebanon (12.7%), lower than its prevalence in Egypt (17.3%) and Kuwait (15.8%), and higher than its prevalence in Iraq (8.8%) and Iran (9.6%) [
53]. Diabetes in Jordan might be compromised by the lack of national diabetic-specific dietary guidelines, poor self-management, and poor blood sugar monitoring among Jordanians with diabetes [
54].
We also found that the increase in age was associated with the increased prevalence of T2D, which is consistent with previous studies that emphasized the role of age as a significant risk for T2D among the study population [
55,
56]. Our results also presented an association between the presence of T2D and low income or low education level. The results were consistent with the previous study in Sweden, as low education and low income levels were linked to elevated glycosylated hemoglobin (>70 mmol/mol or 8.6%) [
57]. In Korea, low education and low income contributed to a higher T2D prevalence, although the income level was not an important predictor for T2D among Korean males [
58]. Another study in South Africa showed that T2D risk was higher in less educated individuals, while there were no differences based on the income level [
56]. We indicated an association between non-administrative jobs and the increased prevalence of T2D. In contrast, holding an administrative position among Japanese males was associated with 12.7 increased odds of developing T2D in males with impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance [
59].
The results presented older adults with a higher prevalence of CVD, which decreased after reaching 60 years only in females. Our results agreed with a study among low- and middle-income countries showing that increasing age was associated with an increased incidence of some CVD, namely angina and stroke, which was followed by a decreased risk in the elderly in some countries [
60]. At the age of 51 years and older, more males (73.3% vs. 27.6%,
p < 0.001) and females (57.0% vs. 26.1%,
p < 0.001) were CVD patients compared to non-CVD cases. The low education in females and the low income among the study population were also associated with an increased prevalence of CVD. Likewise, in Sweden, the prevalence of ischemic heart disease was higher in low-income and low-education-level groups [
57]. A previous study across 20 countries with different income levels revealed that individuals with an education level of primary school or below had a higher chance of developing CVD than others with a university degree or above [
61]. However, a study from India showed that rich households and secondary school levels were more associated with a higher CVD risk than other household wealth and education categories [
62]. Our analysis also represented a higher presence of CVD among participants enrolled in non-administrative jobs, which agreed with a previous study in Turkey [
63]. By comparison, in Japan, the managers and professors (high occupational levels) were more likely to have an increased risk of coronary heart disease but a lower risk of stroke [
64].
In this study, BMI was a better predictor for T2D compared to WC in males and females. In comparison, in China, BMI was defined as the best indicator for the association between obesity and T2D in women but not in men [
65]. Another study in China suggested that WC was a better predictor for T2D compared to BMI, and WC predicted a higher risk of metabolic syndrome and dyslipidemia [
66,
67]. Compared to BMI, WC was associated with T2D and several markers of insulin resistance in French women having severe obesity [
68]. Another study found that BMI was not associated with FBG, glycosylated hemoglobin, insulin resistance, and hyperinsulinemia in South Africa [
56]. A previous study in two European countries showed that BMI and WC were associated with T2D, with a higher OR of having T2D within the highest WC group than the highest BMI group [
69]. In a Europe-wide study, Feller and colleagues reported that the association of WC with T2D might decrease at a BMI level of >30 kg/m
2; however, both BMI and WC were associated with T2D risk [
47]. An analysis of 16 cohort studies from seven countries in Asia showed that the association between obesity indicators and T2D varied with age, and that T2D had a stronger association with waist-stature-ratio than BMI in individuals under 50 years, while the association between T2D and central obesity indicators, including WC, did not differ from BMI in individuals ≥50 years. Nevertheless, in the age- and study-cohort-adjusted model, the association of T2D with WC was more robust than its association with BMI only in women [
70].
Our results proposed WC as a better predictor for CVD than BMI, underlining the fact that central obesity might be associated with increased risk of CVD even in normal-weight individuals [
71]. A cohort study among the U.S. population showed that BMI and WC were strong predictors for disease comorbidities when used separately; nonetheless, only WC remained a predictor for cardiometabolic risk when both indicators were incorporated in the prediction model [
72]. Another study from India showed that CVD was significantly correlated with BMI, WC, and waist-to-height ratio. However, the negative correlation between high-density lipoprotein, a CVD risk indicator, was strongest with WC compared to other anthropometric measurements [
73]. The BMI predicted a higher risk of hypertension, a CVD risk factor, compared to WC among the Chinese population [
66]. In contrast, a study showed that in women with severe obesity, WC had a stronger association with hypertension and several markers of cardiometabolic risk factors in France [
68]. Likewise, in Spain, WC was considered the best predictor of cardiometabolic risk in individuals with morbid obesity [
74].
Our results showed a trend of decreased CVD risk with a BMI ≥ 25 after adjusting the demographic variables. A Previous study showed that underweight is an independent risk factor for CVD, particularly in adults below 60 years [
75]. Another study among elderly showed that both underweight and morbidly obesity (BMI ≥ 35) are associated with CVD, and expanded CVD mortality [
76]. Malnutrition through early life-stages might have an effect on the risk of CVD among adults. For example, a study showed that adults who survived after a severe acute malnutrition during childhood are at higher risk of impaired cardiovascular and metabolic function that might be related to impaired cardiovascular development, elevated peripheral resistance, and diastolic blood pressure [
77]. A review of 57 studies, showed that the exposure to famine or severe malnutrition in childhood is associated with increased risk of CVD and other metabolic abnormalities [
78].
While the results from this study can be applied to other nearby Arabic countries sharing similar backgrounds with Jordan, our study is limited by the lack of other anthropometric indices that can be used in risk prediction. The WC cutoff points in this study are based on the WHO recommendations, which are undefined for the Jordanian population. Furthermore, our results are based on a cross-sectional design that can provide a possible association or evidence, but they are not conclusive. Hence, the results may not be generalized and should be treated cautiously. The ages of the study population ranged from 18 years to 92 years, and this wide range is the main reason for the large SD. This might be one of the limitations of our study.