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Article

A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe

1
Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, University of West Attica, 12244 Athens, Greece
2
School of Science and Technology, International Hellenic University, 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
3
Physics Department, International Hellenic University, 65404 Kavala, Greece
4
Major Network Installations Dept, Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator SA, 18547 Athens, Greece
5
Physics Department, University of Balearic Islands, 07122 Palma Majorca, Spain
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(18), 6525; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525
Received: 17 August 2020 / Revised: 4 September 2020 / Accepted: 6 September 2020 / Published: 8 September 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: Response to Challenges)
The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model’s active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general—even pandemics, such as in the case of COVID-19—further allowing us to come closer to controlling such situations. Finally, this model allowed the study of dynamical characteristics such as the memory effect, through the autocorrelation function, in the studied epidemiological dynamical systems. View Full-Text
Keywords: COVID-19; model of the infection diffusion; self-organizing systems; lattice simulations; epidemiology; preventive measures COVID-19; model of the infection diffusion; self-organizing systems; lattice simulations; epidemiology; preventive measures
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MDPI and ACS Style

Contoyiannis, Y.; Stavrinides, S.G.; P. Hanias, M.; Kampitakis, M.; Papadopoulos, P.; Picos, R.; M. Potirakis, S. A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6525. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525

AMA Style

Contoyiannis Y, Stavrinides SG, P. Hanias M, Kampitakis M, Papadopoulos P, Picos R, M. Potirakis S. A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(18):6525. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525

Chicago/Turabian Style

Contoyiannis, Yiannis, Stavros G. Stavrinides, Michael P. Hanias, Myron Kampitakis, Pericles Papadopoulos, Rodrigo Picos, and Stelios M. Potirakis. 2020. "A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 18: 6525. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17186525

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