Next Article in Journal
Characteristics and Predictors of Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED) among Young People Aged 16–25: The International Alcohol Control Study (IAC), Tshwane, South Africa
Previous Article in Journal
Development and Preliminary Validation of the Couples’ Stigma Scale to Assess Self-Stigma among the Partners of Persons with Autism Spectrum Disorder in Japan
Article

SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence

Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering (DIATI), Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17(10), 3535; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103535
Received: 3 April 2020 / Revised: 14 May 2020 / Accepted: 15 May 2020 / Published: 18 May 2020
(This article belongs to the Section Infectious Disease Epidemiology)
We applied a generalized SEIR epidemiological model to the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the world, with a focus on Italy and its Lombardy, Piedmont, and Veneto regions. We focused on the application of a stochastic approach in fitting the model parameters using a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) solver, to improve the reliability of predictions in the medium term (30 days). We analyzed the official data and the predicted evolution of the epidemic in the Italian regions, and we compared the results with the data and predictions of Spain and South Korea. We linked the model equations to the changes in people’s mobility, with reference to Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. We discussed the effectiveness of policies taken by different regions and countries and how they have an impact on past and future infection scenarios. View Full-Text
Keywords: SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; SEIR modeling; Italy; stochastic modeling; swarm intelligence SARS-CoV-2; COVID-19; SEIR modeling; Italy; stochastic modeling; swarm intelligence
Show Figures

Figure 1

MDPI and ACS Style

Godio, A.; Pace, F.; Vergnano, A. SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 3535. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103535

AMA Style

Godio A, Pace F, Vergnano A. SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(10):3535. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103535

Chicago/Turabian Style

Godio, Alberto, Francesca Pace, and Andrea Vergnano. 2020. "SEIR Modeling of the Italian Epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 Using Computational Swarm Intelligence" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 10: 3535. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17103535

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop