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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(8), 1724; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15081724

Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin

1
State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
2
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3
Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute, Wuhan 430010, China
4
State Key Laboratory on Environmental Aquatic Chemistry, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China
5
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 16 July 2018 / Revised: 8 August 2018 / Accepted: 9 August 2018 / Published: 11 August 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Environmental Science and Engineering)
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Abstract

It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration—climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality. View Full-Text
Keywords: surface water quality; climate change; LUCC; model simulation; Luanhe River Basin (LRB) surface water quality; climate change; LUCC; model simulation; Luanhe River Basin (LRB)
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Bi, W.; Weng, B.; Yuan, Z.; Ye, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, Y.; Yan, D.; Xu, T. Evolution Characteristics of Surface Water Quality Due to Climate Change and LUCC under Scenario Simulations: A Case Study in the Luanhe River Basin. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 1724.

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