Areas with High Hazard Potential for Autochthonous Transmission of Aedes albopictus-Associated Arboviruses in Germany
by
Stephanie Margarete Thomas 1,*,†
, Nils Benjamin Tjaden 1,†, Christina Frank 2, Anja Jaeschke 1, Lukas Zipfel 1, Christiane Wagner-Wiening 3, Mirko Faber 2, Carl Beierkuhnlein 1 and Klaus Stark 2
Stephanie Margarete Thomas 1,*,†, Nils Benjamin Tjaden 1,†, Christina Frank 2, Anja Jaeschke 1, Lukas Zipfel 1, Christiane Wagner-Wiening 3, Mirko Faber 2, Carl Beierkuhnlein 1 and Klaus Stark 2
1
Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, 95447 Bayreuth, Germany
2
Robert Koch Institute, 13353 Berlin, Germany
3
Baden-Württemberg Health Authority, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
†
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15(6), 1270; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15061270
Received: 21 April 2018 / Revised: 6 June 2018 / Accepted: 12 June 2018 / Published: 15 June 2018
(This article belongs to the Section Climate Change and Health)
The intensity and extent of transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have increased markedly over the last decades. Autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya by Aedes albopictus has been recorded in Southern Europe where the invasive mosquito was already established and viraemic travelers had imported the virus. Ae. albopictus populations are spreading northward into Germany. Here, we model the current and future climatically suitable regions for Ae. albopictus establishment in Germany, using climate data of spatially high resolution. To highlight areas where vectors and viraemic travellers are most likely to come into contact, reported dengue and chikungunya incidences are integrated at the county level. German cities with the highest likelihood of autochthonous transmission of Aedes albopictus-borne arboviruses are currently located in the western parts of the country: Freiburg im Breisgau, Speyer, and Karlsruhe, affecting about 0.5 million people. In addition, 8.8 million people live in regions considered to show elevated hazard potential assuming further spread of the mosquito: Baden-Württemberg (Upper Rhine, Lake Constance regions), southern parts of Hesse, and North Rhine-Westphalia (Lower Rhine). Overall, a more targeted and thus cost-efficient implementation of vector control measures and health surveillance will be supported by the detailed maps provided here.
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Keywords:
Aedes albopictus; Asian tiger mosquito; species distribution model; global change; vector-borne diseases; mosquito-borne diseases; chikungunya; dengue; Europe
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MDPI and ACS Style
Thomas, S.M.; Tjaden, N.B.; Frank, C.; Jaeschke, A.; Zipfel, L.; Wagner-Wiening, C.; Faber, M.; Beierkuhnlein, C.; Stark, K. Areas with High Hazard Potential for Autochthonous Transmission of Aedes albopictus-Associated Arboviruses in Germany. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 1270.
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