Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Climate Change Science, Risk and the 2015 Paris Agreement
1.2. Interaction, Attribution, and Causation
1.3. Integrative Risk and the Sustainability of Civilization
1.4. Hypothesis
2. Methods
3. Results
3.1. Citations
3.2. Coverage of Topics
3.3. The Leadership Role of Some Journals
3.4. Papers for the Period 2014–2017
4. Discussion
4.1. Selection and Other Forms of Bias
4.2. Reasons for the Apparent Conservatism of the Literature
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix A.1. Detailed Methods and Results
Appendix A.2. Further Scoring Details
Appendix A.3. Sources (Detailed)
Year | PM | GS | BMJ | Other | CB | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1989 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |||
1990 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | ||
1991 | 14 | 1 | 15 | |||
1992 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 11 | ||
1993 | 7 | 7 | 14 | |||
1994 | 11 | 11 | 22 | |||
1995 | 13 | 17 | 1 | 31 | ||
1996 | 12 | 18 | 30 | |||
1997 | 16 | 21 | 37 | |||
1998 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 34 | |
1999 | 10 | 19 | 29 | |||
2000 | 30 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 51 |
2001 | 34 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 45 | |
2002 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 38 | |
2003 | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | |
2004 | 29 | 12 | 2 | 43 | ||
2005 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 2 | 59 | |
2006 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 68 | ||
2007 | 67 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 89 | |
2008 | 134 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 164 |
2009 | 109 | 54 | 18 | 1 | 2 | 184 |
2010 | 186 | 106 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 314 |
2011 | 176 | 93 | 5 | 1 | 275 | |
2012 | 158 | 108 | 2 | 1 | 269 | |
2013 | 154 | 126 | 2 | 2 | 284 | |
Total | 1313 | 730 | 58 | 25 | 17 | 2143 |
Appendix A.4. Score, Citation and Journal Details
Quintile | Number of Articles | Average Score |
---|---|---|
1989–1993 | 50 | 1.90 |
1994–1998 | 154 | 1.40 |
1999–2003 | 190 | 1.26 |
2004–2008 | 423 | 1.42 |
2009–2013 | 1326 | 1.34 |
1989–2013 | 2143 | 1.37 |
Papers Scored as 1 | Papers Scored as 2 | Papers Scored as 3 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number | Citations | Number | Citations | Number | Citations | |
1989–1993 | 23 | 1996 | 9 | 197 | 18 | 802 |
1994–1998 | 105 | 16,545 | 36 | 1910 | 13 | 172 |
1999–2003 | 146 | 40,352 | 39 | 3985 | 5 | 78 |
2004–2008 | 286 | 39,128 | 96 | 12,590 | 41 | 836 |
2009–2013 | 986 | 67,112 | 229 | 10,916 | 114 | 4748 |
Total | 1546 | 165,133 | 408 | 29,598 | 189 | 6636 |
Journal | Articles | Editorials | News Items | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
BMJ | 35 | 12 | 71 | 123 |
Envtl Hlth Perspectives | 107 | 4 | 121 | |
Lancet | 55 | 8 | 2 | 68 |
Int J Envtl Research & Pub Hlth | 53 | 53 | ||
Global Health Action | 39 | 39 | ||
Int J Biometeorology | 38 | 38 | ||
PloS One | 28 | 28 | ||
Int J Circumpolar Research | 26 | 26 | ||
Am J Preventive Med | 24 | 24 | ||
Science | 19 | 3 | 22 |
Appendix A.5. Additional Papers 2014–2018
Year | Candidate Papers | Papers Analyzed | % Analyzed | Average Score |
---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 649 | 34 | 5.2% | 1.4 |
2015 | 639 | 32 | 5.0% | 1.3 |
2016 | 816 | 43 | 5.3% | 1.2 |
2017 | 813 | 41 | 5.0% | 1.3 |
2018 | 113 | 6 | 5.1% | 1.2 |
Total | 3030 | 156 | 5.1% | 1.3 |
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Butler, C.D. Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013). Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2018, 15, 2266. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266
Butler CD. Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2018; 15(10):2266. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266
Chicago/Turabian StyleButler, Colin D. 2018. "Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013)" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 15, no. 10: 2266. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266
APA StyleButler, C. D. (2018). Climate Change, Health and Existential Risks to Civilization: A Comprehensive Review (1989–2013). International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 15(10), 2266. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph15102266