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Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

WHO European Centre for Environment and Health, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Department of Statistics, Informatics, Applications, University of Florence, 50134 Florence, Italy
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14(7), 729;
Received: 22 May 2017 / Revised: 27 June 2017 / Accepted: 2 July 2017 / Published: 5 July 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather and Public Health)
PDF [2293 KB, uploaded 5 July 2017]


Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. View Full-Text
Keywords: heat-related mortality; climate change; heatwave preparedness heat-related mortality; climate change; heatwave preparedness

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Kendrovski, V.; Baccini, M.; Martinez, G.S.; Wolf, T.; Paunovic, E.; Menne, B. Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 729.

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