Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis of Age-Specific Mortality Rates of Lung Cancer
3.2. Model Comparison
3.3. Age-Period-Cohort Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix
Sex | Year | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 1996 | 2002 | 2010 | |
Male | 62.0 | 63.0 | 57.4 | 52.9 |
Female | 7.0 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
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df | AP | AC | PC | APC-C | APC-IE |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 | 48 | 55 | 44 | 44 | |
Urban Male | |||||
Deviation | 160.89 | 80.60 | 478.47 | 27.40 | 27.40 |
AIC | 614.30 | 558.01 | 941.88 | 512.80 | 6.57 |
BIC | 656.72 | 628.71 | 996.08 | 592.93 | −164.30 |
Urban Female | |||||
Deviation | 108.51 | 49.36 | 157.33 | 24.35 | 24.35 |
AIC | 510.80 | 475.65 | 569.62 | 458.64 | 5.88 |
BIC | 553.22 | 546.35 | 623.82 | 538.77 | −167.34 |
Rural Male | |||||
Deviation | 240.49 | 108.15 | 226.33 | 39.96 | 39.96 |
AIC | 679.67 | 571.33 | 675.50 | 511.14 | 6.55 |
BIC | 722.09 | 642.03 | 729.71 | 591.27 | −151.74 |
Rural Female | |||||
Deviation | 58.07 | 14.91 | 31.61 | 9.11 | 9.11 |
AIC | 435.50 | 416.34 | 419.04 | 418.53 | 5.37 |
BIC | 477.92 | 487.04 | 473.24 | 498.66 | −182.59 |
Factor | Urban Male RR (95% CI) | Urban Female RR (95% CI) | Rural Male RR (95% CI) | Rural Female RR (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Age | ||||
20–24 | 0.04 (0.02–0.11) | 0.03 (0.01–0.13) | 0.06 (0.02–0.17) | 0.06 (0.03–0.12) |
25–29 | 0.07 (0.04–0.13) | 0.08 (0.04–0.18) | 0.08 (0.04–0.18) | 0.12 (0.08–0.19) |
30–34 | 0.14 (0.09–0.22) | 0.20 (0.12–0.34) | 0.20 (0.12–0.32) | 0.27 (0.20–0.36) |
35–39 | 0.27 (0.19–0.37) | 0.35 (0.24–0.53) | 0.29 (0.20–0.44) | 0.37 (0.29–0.47) |
40–44 | 0.52 (0.41–0.67) | 0.65 (0.47–0.90) | 0.58 (0.43–0.78) | 0.65 (0.54–0.80) |
45–49 | 0.90 (0.74–1.09) | 0.96 (0.74–1.24) | 0.94 (0.74–1.20) | 0.95 (0.81–1.12) |
50–54 | 1.50 (1.29–1.76) | 1.54 (1.25–1.89) | 1.51 (1.25–1.83) | 1.35 (1.19–1.54) |
55–59 | 2.29 (2.02–2.59) | 2.04 (1.73–2.41) | 2.13 (1.83–2.48) | 1.78 (1.60–1.98) |
60–64 | 3.54 (3.20–3.92) | 3.11 (2.72–3.56) | 3.01 (2.67–3.39) | 2.44 (2.24–2.66) |
65–69 | 5.15 (4.68–5.67) | 4.28 (3.78–4.84) | 3.93 (3.55–4.36) | 3.17 (2.93–3.43) |
70–74 | 6.45 (5.78–7.19) | 5.32 (4.64–6.09) | 4.98 (4.47–5.56) | 4.28 (3.94–4.65) |
75–79 | 6.92 (6.04–7.92) | 6.01 (5.10–7.09) | 5.53 (4.83–6.32) | 4.99 (4.52–5.51) |
80–84 | 6.76 (5.71–8.00) | 5.95 (4.85–7.30) | 5.62 (4.75–6.65) | 5.87 (5.20–6.63) |
Period | ||||
1988 | 0.69 (0.62–0.77) | 0.78 (0.68–0.89) | 0.58 (0.51–0.67) | 0.64 (0.58–0.70) |
1993 | 0.87 (0.81–0.93) | 0.86 (0.78–0.94) | 0.64 (0.59–0.70) | 0.68 (0.64–0.73) |
1998 | 1.02 (0.98–1.05) | 1.05 (1.00–1.10) | 0.85 (0.81–0.90) | 0.86 (0.83–0.90) |
2003 | 0.95 (0.91–0.99) | 0.92 (0.87–0.98) | 1.14 (1.09–1.20) | 1.17 (1.12–1.21) |
2008 | 1.20 (1.12–1.29) | 1.16 (1.06–1.27) | 1.65 (1.53–1.79) | 1.39 (1.32–1.47) |
2013 | 1.44 (1.29–1.60) | 1.33 (1.16–1.52) | 1.65 (1.46–1.86) | 1.64 (1.51–1.77) |
Cohort | ||||
1904–1908 | 3.00 (2.33–3.85) | 2.65 (1.94–3.62) | 2.16 (1.61–2.90) | 1.79 (1.47–2.18) |
1909–1913 | 3.02 (2.43–3.75) | 2.62 (2.01–3.43) | 2.06 (1.61–2.64) | 1.72 (1.46–2.03) |
1914–1918 | 2.99 (2.46–3.62) | 2.56 (2.02–3.24) | 2.16 (1.74–2.68) | 1.94 (1.69–2.24) |
1919–1923 | 2.74 (2.30–3.27) | 2.64 (2.13–3.28) | 2.45 (2.03–2.97) | 2.09 (1.85–2.37) |
1924–1928 | 2.62 (2.21–3.11) | 2.53 (2.06–3.11) | 2.75 (2.30–3.30) | 2.26 (2.02–2.54) |
1929–1933 | 2.22 (1.87–2.64) | 2.26 (1.84–2.79) | 2.38 (1.98–2.85) | 2.11 (1.88–2.37) |
1934–1938 | 1.66 (1.38–2.00) | 1.90 (1.51–2.38) | 1.97 (1.62–2.41) | 1.95 (1.72–2.22) |
1939–1943 | 1.30 (1.05–1.60) | 1.40 (1.09–1.81) | 1.57 (1.25–1.96) | 1.74 (1.51–2.02) |
1944–1948 | 1.16 (0.91–1.47) | 1.09 (0.81–1.46) | 1.46 (1.13–1.88) | 1.60 (1.35–1.90) |
1949–1953 | 1.15 (0.88–1.51) | 1.03 (0.74–1.44) | 1.27 (0.95–1.70) | 1.46 (1.20–1.77) |
1954–1958 | 1.03 (0.76–1.40) | 0.90 (0.62–1.33) | 1.01 (0.72–1.42) | 1.15 (0.92–1.44) |
1959–1963 | 0.81 (0.57–1.14) | 0.66 (0.43–1.02) | 0.73 (0.50–1.08) | 0.84 (0.65–1.08) |
1964–1968 | 0.57 (0.38–0.86) | 0.55 (0.33–0.91) | 0.67 (0.43–1.03) | 0.73 (0.55–0.97) |
1969–1973 | 0.53 (0.33–0.85) | 0.51 (0.28–0.91) | 0.49 (0.29–0.83) | 0.51 (0.36–0.72) |
1974–1978 | 0.36 (0.19–0.68) | 0.34 (0.15–0.74) | 0.38 (0.19–0.75) | 0.40 (0.26–0.63) |
1979–1983 | 0.27 (0.11–0.68) | 0.34 (0.12–0.95) | 0.27 (0.10–0.70) | 0.30 (0.16–0.54) |
1984–1988 | 0.23 (0.06–0.90) | 0.27 (0.05–1.48) | 0.33 (0.10–1.15) | 0.25 (0.09–0.64) |
1989–1993 | 0.14 (0.01–3.06) | 0.24 (0.01–9.94) | 0.14 (0.01–3.17) | 0.20 (0.03–1.51) |
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Wang, L.; Yu, C.; Liu, Y.; Wang, J.; Li, C.; Wang, Q.; Wang, P.; Wu, S.; Zhang, Z.-J. Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2016, 13, 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13111052
Wang L, Yu C, Liu Y, Wang J, Li C, Wang Q, Wang P, Wu S, Zhang Z-J. Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2016; 13(11):1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13111052
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Lijun, Chuanhua Yu, Yu Liu, Jun Wang, Chunhui Li, Quan Wang, Peigang Wang, Shaotang Wu, and Zhi-Jiang Zhang. 2016. "Lung Cancer Mortality Trends in China from 1988 to 2013: New Challenges and Opportunities for the Government" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 13, no. 11: 1052. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph13111052