Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Experimental Section
2.1. Data
2.2. Study Design
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Forecasts
Forecast Length | Intercept | Slope |
---|---|---|
1-day forecast | 2.283 | 0.829 |
2-day forecast | 2.388 | 0.825 |
3-day forecast | 2.753 | 0.795 |
3.2. Risk Models
Model Type | Forecast | Adjusted Forecast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-day | 2-day | 3-day | 1-day | 2-day | 3-day | |
DLNM | 0.62 | 0.05 | NA | 0.67 | 0.10 | NA |
GAM | 0.78 | 0.53 | 0.16 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.41 |
PWL | 0.79 | 0.56 | 0.19 | 0.88 | 0.72 | 0.47 |
THR | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.09 | 0.84 | 0.57 | 0.23 |
Model Type | Forecast | Adjusted Forecast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1-day | 2-day | 3-day | 1-day | 2-day | 3-day | |
DLNM | 1.00 | 1.00 | NA | 0.88 | 0.50 | NA |
GAM | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | 0.94 | 0.93 |
PWL | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.93 |
THR | 0.96 | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Åström, C.; Ebi, K.L.; Langner, J.; Forsberg, B. Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 254-267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100254
Åström C, Ebi KL, Langner J, Forsberg B. Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015; 12(1):254-267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100254
Chicago/Turabian StyleÅström, Christofer, Kristie L. Ebi, Joakim Langner, and Bertil Forsberg. 2015. "Developing a Heatwave Early Warning System for Sweden: Evaluating Sensitivity of Different Epidemiological Modelling Approaches to Forecast Temperatures" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12, no. 1: 254-267. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100254