Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data

| Variable | Mean | SD | Min. | Max. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | 1,476 | 439.61 | 829 | 2,559 |
| Women > 16 years | 651.3 | 191.15 | 361 | 1,174 |
| Property value | 22,440 | 9,160 | 11,190 | 52,580 |
| % Immigration | 16.58 | 6.85 | 6.33 | 33.17 |
| Policing activity | 10.16 | 3.56 | 2 | 18 |
| Social Disorder | 0.29 | 0.75 | 0 | 4 |
| Physical Disorder | 6.2 | 3.26 | 0 | 16 |
| Residential Mobility | 22.92 | 6.01 | 11.39 | 34.52 |
3. Methods
) where σH ~ U (0,1). The prior information of standard deviation of spatial effect is also a uniform distribution σS ~ U (0,1).
[68] which was near to 1.0 for all parameters. A sensitivity analysis on prior distributions of hyperparameters was performed to measure the robustness of the results. The posterior distributions showed the consistency of results. Finally, models were compared by considering the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) [69], which is computed routinely by WinBUGS. The model with the smaller DIC value was chosen.4. Results
| Explanatory Variables | Non-spatial Poisson (Model 1) | Spatial Poisson (Model 2) | Final Spatial Model (Model 3) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | Mean (95% CI) | |
| Intercept | −1.154 (−1.965, −2.99) | −1.221 (−2.291, −0.153) | −1.715 (−2.193, −1.253) |
| Property Value a | −0.104 (−0.331, 0.102) | −0.092 (−0.359, 0.175) | -- |
| Immigration | 0.046 (0.011, 0.080) | 0.049 (0.006, 0.095) | 0.046 (0.026, 0.064) |
| Policing Activity | 0.056 (0.022, 0.093) | 0.057 (0.016, 0.099) | 0.064 (0.0287, 0.104) |
| Social Disorder | 0.025 (−0.102, 0.148) | 0.036 (−0.134, 0.199) | -- |
| Physical Disorder | 0.034 (0, 0.07) | 0.030 (−0.013, 0.074) | 0.030 (−0.009, 0.071) |
| Residential Instability | −0.010 (−0.042, 0.001) | −0.012 (−0.052, 0.029) | -- |
| σS | -- | 0.232 (0.012, 0.587) | 0.232 (0.010, 0.576) |
| σH | -- | 0.205 (0.015, 0.407) | 0.190 (0.004, 0.378) |
| DIC | 355.6 | 353.7 | 348.9 |
| pD | 6.9 | 25.1 | 21.193 |



5. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
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Gracia, E.; López-Quílez, A.; Marco, M.; Lladosa, S.; Lila, M. Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2014, 11, 866-882. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100866
Gracia E, López-Quílez A, Marco M, Lladosa S, Lila M. Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2014; 11(1):866-882. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100866
Chicago/Turabian StyleGracia, Enrique, Antonio López-Quílez, Miriam Marco, Silvia Lladosa, and Marisol Lila. 2014. "Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 11, no. 1: 866-882. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100866
APA StyleGracia, E., López-Quílez, A., Marco, M., Lladosa, S., & Lila, M. (2014). Exploring Neighborhood Influences on Small-Area Variations in Intimate Partner Violence Risk: A Bayesian Random-Effects Modeling Approach. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 11(1), 866-882. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph110100866

