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Keywords = modified SEAIR model

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15 pages, 2347 KB  
Article
Mathematical Modelling to Predict the Effect of Vaccination on Delay and Rise of COVID-19 Cases Management
by Charu Arora, Poras Khetarpal, Saket Gupta, Nuzhat Fatema, Hasmat Malik and Asyraf Afthanorhan
Mathematics 2023, 11(4), 821; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11040821 - 6 Feb 2023
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3197
Abstract
In this paper, a mathematical model based on COVID-19 is developed to study and manage disease outbreaks. The effect of vaccination with regard to its efficacy and percentage of population vaccinated in a closed population is investigated. To study virus transmission, the system [...] Read more.
In this paper, a mathematical model based on COVID-19 is developed to study and manage disease outbreaks. The effect of vaccination with regard to its efficacy and percentage of population vaccinated in a closed population is investigated. To study virus transmission, the system employs six nonlinear ordinary differential equations with susceptible–exposed–asymptomatic–infected–vaccinated–recovered populations and the basic reproduction number are calculated. The proposed model describes for highly infectious diseases (such as COVID-19) in a closed containment area with no migration. This paper considers that the percentage of vaccinated population has a significant impact on the number of COVID-19 positive cases during the pandemic wave and examines how the pandemic rise time is delayed. Numerical simulation to investigate disease outbreaks when the community is undergoing vaccination is performed, taking the efficacy rate of the vaccine into account. Sensitivity Index values are calculated for the reproduction number and their relations with few other parameters are depicted. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Epidemic Models: Track and Control)
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24 pages, 2664 KB  
Article
A New Numerical Scheme for Time Fractional Diffusive SEAIR Model with Non-Linear Incidence Rate: An Application to Computational Biology
by Yasir Nawaz, Muhammad Shoaib Arif and Wasfi Shatanawi
Fractal Fract. 2022, 6(2), 78; https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract6020078 - 31 Jan 2022
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3006
Abstract
In this paper, we propose a modified fractional diffusive SEAIR epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. A constructed model of fractional partial differential equations (PDEs) is more general than the corresponding model of fractional ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The Caputo fractional derivative [...] Read more.
In this paper, we propose a modified fractional diffusive SEAIR epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate. A constructed model of fractional partial differential equations (PDEs) is more general than the corresponding model of fractional ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The Caputo fractional derivative is considered. Linear stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium state of the epidemic model (ODEs) is presented by employing Routh–Hurwitz stability criteria. In order to solve this model, a fractional numerical scheme is proposed. The proposed scheme can be used to find conditions for obtaining positive solutions for diffusive epidemic models. The stability of the scheme is given, and convergence conditions are found for the system of the linearized diffusive fractional epidemic model. In addition to this, the deficiencies of accuracy and consistency in the nonstandard finite difference method are also underlined by comparing the results with the standard fractional scheme and the MATLAB built-in solver pdepe. The proposed scheme shows an advantage over the fractional nonstandard finite difference method in terms of accuracy. In addition, numerical results are supplied to evaluate the proposed scheme’s performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fractional Dynamical Systems: Applications and Theoretical Results)
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