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Under the political dominance of urbanization, the policy of increasing versus decreasing balance (IVDB) between urban and rural construction land has had a profound influence on urban land expansion in China. The purpose of this study is to reveal the impact of the IVDB policy on the process of urban land expansion. Considering the transition process among different land use types under the IVDB policy, this study proposes two situations of urban land expansion. A future land use simulation (FLUS) model is applied to simulate the expansion process over three steps. A case study of Fenghua District in Ningbo City, China, shows the following: (1) In the first situation of village land directly transformed into urban land, the transformation is concentrated in the northern and western parts of Fenghua District. The expansion trends are particularly pronounced along existing urban land and main traffic lines. (2) In the second situation of village land reclamation for agricultural land and urban land occupation for agricultural land, the spatial differences in village land conversion to arable land or other agricultural land are relatively small, and the degree of concentration of arable land is significantly increased after reclamation. Urban land expansion mainly occurs close to Ningbo City. With the help of transfer quotas “produced” by other areas, expansion land can be balanced within Fenghua District. This research helps to shed light on the urban land use growth process and provides beneficial insights for stock spatial planning in China. Full article

The project-based construction land-use policy of ‘increasing versus decreasing balance’ (IVDB) is pivotal to easing the contradiction between urban and rural land in China. Understanding the relationship between the scale and revenue of the balanced quota is crucial for increasing the efficiency of quota-allocated, and further improving, IVDB performance. However, existing studies have rarely revealed the impact of the balanced quota’s scale on its revenue, supported through empirical evidence. In this study, we analyzed the relationship between the scale and revenue of the balanced quota and used the quadratic econometric model to explore the inverted U-shaped impact of the scale of the balanced quota on the revenue of the 1907 IVDB projects in Zhejiang province. The results show that: (1) the relationship between the quota’s scale and the revenue shows an inverted ‘U’ type in Zhejiang. On the premise of considering three control variable groups, the optimally balanced quota of Zhejiang province is 7.19 ha. (2) There is spatial heterogeneity in the optimal scale of the balanced quota in Zhejiang and the appreciated scale of the quota in northeast and southwest Zhejiang is 9.50 ha and 6.03 ha, respectively. Then we discussed problems associated with the scale and revenue of the project-based balanced quota under the implementation of the IVDB policy. The study enriches the performance analysis of IVDB policy from the point of view of economic perspective and tries to provide a scientific basis for the appropriate size quota for local government. Finally, comprehensive consideration of inputs to allocate the balanced quota, optimizing the rural resettlements spatial planning, and strengthening central-government supervision is put forward. Full article